Live Dogs: Play Orioles Through Five
Blue Jays vs. Orioles, 7:05 ET
The Blue Jays and Orioles are wrapping up a four-game series. After the first two games went to the Blue Jays, yesterday's matchup was taken by the Orioles. The Orioles are just eight games over .500 and are chasing the Blue Jays for the final spot in the Wild Card so this is big for them both.
The Blue Jays have a clear edge in this one on paper. They have the bigger names at the very least, and I think they have the better pitcher. Alek Manoah is once again taking the mound for the Blue Jays. He has the eighth-best ERA in baseball at 2.48 and is tied for being in the top 20 for strikeouts. He was a key to starting that run that we just went on in baseball wins. In his last start, we correctly identified that he would dominate the Pirates. He went 7.1 innings and didn't allow a run. He has faced the Orioles three times on the year, and the Blue Jays are just 1-2 in those games. In his most recent start against them, he allowed four earned runs in 5.2 innings, it wasn't a bad start, but it certainly wasn't good enough. Maybe the Orioles have his number?
Don't sleep on Dean Kremer. On the year, he has posted a 3.22 ERA which would be up there in the top ranks if he had enough innings to qualify. This is a night game and that's where Kremer has been at his best. In 10 starts, he has covered 61 innings and allowed just 16 earned runs. He's been a little better at home on the year, but it isn't drastically different. He has faced the Blue Jays just once this year. It was a good start - he went seven innings and allowed seven hits resulting in two earned runs. The Orioles won that game on the road.
These are two good starters here. I think the Orioles are live dogs in this one even with Manoah on the mound. They've shown they can hit him in the past. Even with as good as he is pitching, Kremer is pitching just as effectively right now. In a 50/50 matchup, I think we are getting some nice value on the Orioles. I am taking the Orioles at +130 through five innings, I mentioned this yesterday in our Diamondbacks play - I want it specifically for a push opportunity if we are tied. Ties may be like kissing your sister, but if it protects my money a bit more, I'll pucker up.
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