Littell On Hill, Big Bet In Pocket

Orioles vs. Rays, 7:35 ET

I was able to grab a win in one of the two plays that I put out yesterday. I saw a line that was a bit off because of Sandy Alcantara starting and recently looking like he turned a corner. I am still intrigued to see where Alcantara goes from here, as I am interested in seeing if he stays in Miami this season or not. More importantly, I'm happy we were able to get a reasonably priced victory yesterday. Let's get back in the win column tonight as the Orioles take on the Rays in an AL East battle.

Before the season began, if you had to pick between the Orioles and the Rays for who would be the worse of the two squads, you probably would've guessed the Orioles. Baltimore is not having a good season. They are the lone team in the division that is under .500 for the season, currently 11 games under. They have improved a bit since May 30th when they started a series against the White Sox. At the beginning of the day they were 19-36, and have gone 11-5 since that point. The question is if they are turning the corner or not. In that span they have made three different sweeps. Today they send out Dean Kremer who has a 5-7 record with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Kremer has been awful on the road this year with a 6.33 ERA and 34 runs allowed in 48.1 innings. He has made nine road starts, and allowed five or more earned runs in five of them. He only has one quality start on the road this season as well. Overall, the Rays are hitting just .250 against Kremer. 

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 10:  Dean Kremer #64 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches during Game 3 of the Division Series between the Baltimore Orioles and the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on Tuesday, October 10, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Tampa is second in the AL East, a division that will likely be battling for spots all season long. The Rays are eight games over .500 at the moment, and only a couple of games behind the Yankees in the division. The fact that they are even in this spot is a testament to the franchise and the teams makeup. If you look at the rosters in this division, I would say this is the one with the least amount of talent on paper. They find a way to make things work. I will always root for the teams that find ways to win. Even in a home that isn't really a home for them this season they are above .500. Tonight they send out Zack Littell. For the year, Littell is 6-6 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Littell doesn't have the same drastic splits that Kremer does, but he is slightly better at home than he is on the road. Since the beginning of May, he has six quality starts in eight outings. If he can avoid giving up home runs, he doesn't allow a ton of runs. He has allowed 37 earned runs this season, and 21 of them have come from homers. The Orioles, for all the bad things they've done this year, are 11th in homers. Overall, the Orioles are hitting .284 against him with five homers in 95 at-bats.

There are a lot of key stats to consider in this one. I mentioned the homer thing already, and that is certainly one worth considering. However, I think that what Littell has done really well this season is limit those homers to being solo shots. Kremer has been very bad on the road and Littell has been better at home. I lean toward the over hitting here, but I'm not backing that. I'm taking the Rays to win this one outright as I think Littell sets them up for success. I will take them through five as this is mostly about the starters and the -130 isn't much worse than the -123 for the full game. 

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