Will Lillard Three-Peat?

3pt Contest

There was no question about last year’s NBA All-Star Weekend. The best part of the entire thing was Steph Curry taking on Sabrina Ionescu in a three-point battle. That won’t happen this year because of a number of reasons, but it was fun watching Ionescu shoot from deep and Curry defend his excellence. I’m sure the goal was to get Caitlin Clark and she said no. Anyway, this year we still have the original 3-point contest. Let’s see who we should bet on. 

This year's NBA participants are: Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham, Darius Garland, Tyler Herro, Buddy Hield, Cam Johnson, Damian Lillard, and Norman Powell.

If you told me to take two players without any analysis, it would likely be Lillard and Hield. Lillard is arguably the best shooter of the bunch and has participated in this contest multiple times. He is the most likely to hit the deep shots if they still have that feature. He’s also won two straight contests and is vying for this third in a row. Lillard won’t be pressured in the moment, but one bad rack can cost anyone in this game. 

Hield is a guy that if he gets hot is hotter than anyone. I actually enjoy watching him despite his flaws. He has the potential to go perfect or miss every shot. It really is wild, but the reality is that him missing all of the shots would only be if he is defended. My point is that he is inconsistent at best. Still, him getting hot is a real possibility and he just needs to do it a few times to win. 

Feb 5, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA;  Golden State Warriors guard Buddy Hield (7) shoots the ball against the Utah Jazz during the second half at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-Imagn Images

Brunson, Cunningham, and Powell are not guys that I expect to win this. All three are having good seasons, but I don’t look at them as volume 3-point shooters. More like good set shooters. I’d be surprised to see any of these three make it into the final round. 

Tyler Herro is too streaky in my opinion. Now, that can be a good thing, but it also can really hurt you. Obviously if you’re hitting, then you’re hitting a ton in a row. If you’re missing, though, then it can be hard to get back into the rhythm. As Geoff Clark will tell you, I am a Herro hater, so maybe I’ve got the wrong analysis, but I won’t back him. 

Johnson and Garland are two guys that I do think could win this. Garland isn’t someone that I love under pressure, but I think he has good form and can find a way to get through the racks with some damage. He’s also shooting really well from deep this year. Johnson is pretty much exclusively a three-point shooter. He has the range, gets a good rhythm, and I think has some of the best form for this of anyone in the competition. 

I do expect Lillard to win once again, but no one wants to bet the favorite, so I’ll take a position on Johnson. I think he can do this. I also will grab a small share of Hield. It is in his home court afterall so he can have more practice than anyone. 

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