Let's See Skenes Mow Down Cubs Today

Cubs vs. Pirates, 12:35 ET

One day I'm great, the next day I'm terrible. It has been that way much of the baseball season as I went 2-0 one day this week and dropped two games yesterday. Betting is always a challenge but I must say the start to this baseball season has been harder for me than any other baseball season that I can remember. The confidence is still there, the signs of turning it around are there, but getting to the end of the rainbow here is proving a bit frustrating. I'm locking in on a bet between the Cubs and Pirates as they close out a series today. 

The Cubs are one of the teams that have been surprisingly great to start the season. They are hitting the ball extremely well, stealing bases - which has not been a calling card of the Chicago Cubs in years past - and they are getting production from the bottom of their order. In fact really only one starter isn't carrying his weight and Dansby Swanson is someone you can at least expect to eventually turn it around. The team is even winning on the road, and if you read any of my past few articles, you'll know that there are very few teams winning on the road to start the year. This is a rubber match for the two clubs, and if the Cubs lose, it would be their second consecutive series loss. They send out Colin Rea to the bump in hopes of taking down this matchup. Rea has been a swingman for the Cubs with half of his appearances coming from the pen and the other half as a starter. He is 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Pirates hitters have a surprising amount of experience against him and are pretty good, hitting .268 against the righty. 

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MARCH 29: Dansby Swanson #7 and Matt Shaw #6 of the Chicago Cubs react after Swanson tagged out Garrett Hampson #8 of the Arizona Diamondbacks to end the game at Chase Field on March 29, 2025 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Cubs defeated the Diamondbacks 4-3. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

The Pirates are not one of the best teams, but the goal really never should've been them being an elite team this year. For the Pirates, the goal should be about trying to get better and find a way to build a consistent team. Winning is never easy in any professional sport, but when you refuse to sign great players to big deals, or seemingly cry poor despite being in a billion-dollar business, you won't get much sympathy. Still, if this team can maybe end the year around the .500 mark, perhaps that gives some incentive to open up the wallet or find ways to get pieces for the big league club that are of value. Ultimately, they can't let the guy that is on the mound today leave because they never put a winner or try to put a winner around him. Paul Skenes is a generational talent and if the Pirates want to have any shot at keeping him long term, they need to make winning a priority. He does plenty of it himself and has a 3-2 record with a 2.39 ERA. What is most impressive is his 0.80 WHIP, good for third in baseball. His ERA, although low, is higher than you'd expect with that WHIP because he throws hard so hard contact is made, if the batter can make contact. He's only allowed one homer this season, and has allowed one or fewer earned runs in three of his six starts. Cubs hitters have struck out 18 times in 43 at-bats against Skenes. 

I've been doing better with player props than I have with anything else, and this feels like a good opportunity to take one here. For the record, I think the Cubs win this game - they've battled Skenes a few times last year, and I still like the Cubs offense better than the Pirates. The problem is that there isn't enough value. Also, I'm a homer, but I do bet against the Cubs when it is correct. Today might be the day, so I'm laying off. Instead, I think the Cubs strikeout quite a bit here. I'm backing Skenes to have over 6.5 strikeouts at -135. If he records 18 outs (six innings) and falls in line with his historical performance against Cubs hitters, he will strike out 8 or 9 so I think we get good value here. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024