Let's Cash Some Plays To Close Out The Sweet Sixteen

Tennessee vs. Iowa State, 10:10 ET

This is the final game to determine the last spot on the Elite Eight. After this one, it means we are down to just seven games remaining in the NCAA Tournament, and we will have a new champion. While there have been a lot of talking heads saying this wasn't an exciting tournament, there were seven games decided by three points or fewer. There were at least another couple of games that were decided by four points. I don't care who wins (if I'm not betting on it) I just want entertaining games. The boys have delivered. I'm hoping this one is not close, so there is no need to sweat as Tennessee takes on Iowa State.

Tennessee has been one of those teams that I haven't had a great feel for this season. The Volunteers are 24-11 officially, and they were fifth in the SEC, which wasn't quite the powerhouse that it was last season. In conference play the team went 11-7, but they never really had a truly ugly loss. They lost to Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky (twice), Missouri, Alabama, and Vanderbilt (twice). All of those teams were tournament teams. Vanderbilt beat them twice in a week, once in the regular season and once in the SEC Tournament. However, both of those games (and the one Tennessee won) were close. In the tournament, they took down Miami Ohio in the opening round. This was one that I think most people expected. The next game, against Virginia, was not. Virginia is a solid program, and Tennessee beat them by seven. In fairness, some of that separation came late in the game on free throws. However, they looked like the better team, and the team in control for most of the game.  

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - MARCH 20: Ja'Kobi Gillespie #0 of the Tennessee Volunteers reacts against the Miami (OH) RedHawks in the first half during the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 20, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Iowa State has been one of the highest ranked teams in the nation all season long. They've used a combination of both smart passing, tough defense, and lethal outside shooting to get them where they are. I am not nearly as high on Iowa State as some people are, but this has been a very talented team. They lost to Arizona in the Big 12 Championship, but it was a close one. They looked like they were stumbling near the end of the season, which is obviously not an ideal time to play your worst basketball. They went 6-5 over the 11 games before the NCAA Tournament. Against Tennessee State, they absolutely destroyed the team. They blitzed them and hit from basically everywhere. Then against Kentucky, it was more of the same as they won by 19. This one took a little longer for them to get going as they went into halftime with a one-point lead and then finally shook the Wildcats with a big second half. Mostly, though, it was their defense that got them back into the game. They were down by 10 for some of the first half and they couldn't get the outside shot to fall. Once it started, and once they got the turnovers going, they never looked back.

I do think Tennessee can put up a fight, but if they cant stop Iowa State from deep, the game will be over very quickly. Tennessee is one of the better three-point defensive teams in the game, sitting at 19th in opponent 3-point percentage according to Team Rankings. However, they do allow 20 free throws per game to opponents, and that is a concern for me. In tight games like this, that stuff matters. Iowa State, to me, doesn't seem to be elite in the paint, and it could be an edge for Tennessee. However, against Virginia, they only won that battle by two points. I'm going to split a unit here as I like the over and I like the Cyclones -4.5. I think the free throws make a difference, and I think this should see both teams hit 70 points at least. 

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