Last Week Already Showed Us This Will Be A Low-Scoring Game

Texans vs. Patriots, 3:00 ET

We don’t have much football left, and we already have half of the Conference Championship game figured out. Now, we get to see who will be the other half in the AFC. This has been an awesome season with teams stepping up in unexpected ways. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that either of these teams is here, but I will admit I am. One of the Texans or Patriots gets to punch their ticket to the AFC Championship game today.

The Texans went into Pittsburgh and didn’t just win the game; they might’ve ended Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin’s careers. A quick note on that - I get you’re not winning Super Bowls, but there is too much success, in my opinion, to move on from him. I get that it was positioned as his choice, and if that is true, fine. I just don’t believe it. The story of that game, though, was not just the Texans defense, which was typically fantastic. The story was that the offense actually looked pretty good as well. If the offense can play at that level - which it will be harder to do against a good New England defense - there is nothing stopping the Texans from winning the Super Bowl. The running game was working well, CJ Stroud had a few mistakes but managed well otherwise, and Christian Kirk looked as good as he has all season. The Texans defense travels well and should still be relied on even against this good Pats offense.

(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

The Patriots had a solid showing in their playoff debut, but I think you can also credit their defense with the success from their opening round. They had to face Justin Herbert, but I’m starting to believe in him less and less. I almost feel like he is Josh Allen if you ordered him off of Wish. Either way, kudos to the Pats defense that held their opponent to just three points and 207 total yards. The Patriots' offense looked okay, but incomplete. They had 381 yards which is great, but only 2 more first downs than the Chargers, and only one touchdown. They had a fumble and an interception, so I suppose if they clean up the turnovers there is an even bigger gap between the teams. I’m curious to see how the team responds against another strong defense. I’d argue that was the best defense the Patriots faced this season. Maybe the Browns, but either way, the Texans will be at least as good if not better. Drake Maye will have to execute and turn field goals into touchdowns.

This is going to be a tight game. The Texans can win it if the defense shows up, and the offense works the ball to a variety of play markers. The Patriots win this one if they find a way to punch the ball in the endzone. What you really want is to put pressure on the Texans offense. If they go down 7-10 points, I think that Houston won’t be able to come back. Either way, I don’t see either team scoring 20 points. This game is going under 40.5.

 For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024