Kirby Can Control Orioles Hitters On Sunday Afternoon

Mariners vs. Orioles, 1:35 ET

It is a Sunday, and normally I'd like to write about Sunday Night Baseball. However, even though that is a decent matchup with the Braves taking on the Padres, I don't think there is a great value there (though I lean toward the Padres winning). I was going through the schedule and thought this would be a better match for us to take a look at as we get two of the better teams in the American League playing an afternoon game in Baltimore. The Mariners take on the Orioles in a showdown between two young and exciting teams. 

The Mariners started the season looking like they would be average at best. If we are being honest they looked like they would be one of the worst teams in the division. But, that's the reason that the teams play all 162 games. Seattle has found it's way out of the basement and to the top of the division. They are playing good baseball and most of that is due to their pitching staff. They could have arguably the best starting rotation in baseball with legitimate threats to pitch a shutout almost any given night. The entire team ERA is 3.33 and their WHIP is 1.05. Limiting opponents to around nine baserunners a game is a really strong number and allows your pitcher to get into a groove. The Mariners hitting does leave a bit to be desired as they are averaging only around four runs a game. Perhaps they need to find some sort of bat at the deadline. For now, they need to figure out ways to manufacture runs. Today's pitcher is going to be George Kirby, one of the better young pitchers in the game. Kirby has a 3.58 ERA for the season and a 0.95 WHIP which is good for 10th in the league. He hasn't been great on the road with a 4.58 ERA. He's had two starts, one against the Blue Jays, and one against the Twins, where he allowed a total of nine runs in nine innings. The other two road starts he has allowed one earned run over 11 innings. The Orioles hitters are 17-for-73 against the Mariners starter, but have hit five home runs. 

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 10:  Dean Kremer #64 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches during Game 3 of the Division Series between the Baltimore Orioles and the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on Tuesday, October 10, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Baltimore, on the other hand, is looking like one of the best teams in baseball once again. Just like I said with the Mariners, a lot can happen and maybe the Orioles fall apart, but the birds seem to be getting better as the young season matures. They made a splash this offseason by adding Corbin Burnes to the squad, and that helped solidify their pitching rotation. The bullpen doesn't appear to be quite as dominant or sharp as it was last year, but again, this is something that can change over time. The offense for the Orioles is not stacked with one-dimensional hitters. They have guys with some pop, and some that hit for average, and those that do both. They are a fun team to watch. Today, they turn to Dean Kremer to battle against Kriby. Kremer has been solid this season with a 3.72 ERA. Like Kirby, his ERA is worse appearing than the WHIP. His WHIP is just 1.02, good for top-20 in the league. His home ERA looks rough at over five, but he has had only one start where he allowed more than three earned runs. Mariners hitters are 13-for-44 against him in their careers, but he has allowed over half of those hits to go for extra-bases. 

This isn't a game that I think the Orioles have the advantage. Kirby is a really good pitcher and can navigate tough lineups. Kremer is good, but I think closer to a back-of-the-rotation starter. In my opinion, this game probably will be more of an over which does favor the Orioles considering how poorly the Mariners offense has done this year. However, I think it is more likely that Kirby can control the Orioles offense here. I'll back the Mariners to win through five innings in this one. 

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