King, Padres Will Spoil Boston's Hope Opener

Padres vs. Red Sox, 2:10 ET

I was able to get the first win of the season for us as the Giants were able to beat the Mets yesterday behind Robbie Ray. I also want to take a moment to mention that if you picked up on the notion that he would be a strong play for over his strikeouts, that cashed as well. Congrats to my guy Timmy, who parlayed them. Baseball is typically my best sport, but last year was a little rough, and the start to this one wasn't ideal. Still plenty of time, obviously. This afternoon, the Padres take on the Red Sox, and I'm looking to get another win here.

The Padres are not off to a very good start either. They are just 2-4 for the year, and they've lost both of their series they've had this year. They dropped the first two games against the Tigers before winning one. Then they dropped two to the Giants before winning the final game. In their losses, they haven't scored more than three runs. They've scored two runs in three of their four losses. It isn't like the wins have been offensive outbursts, though. They won one game 3-0, and they won the other game 7-1. They scored 10 runs in their two wins and nine runs in their four losses. I've brought this up many times, but this probably wouldn't be noticed if it weren't so early in the season. The small sample size isn't helping hide anything. The good news for the Padres is they have Michael King going, which means they might not need a ton of runs to win the game. He was strong in his season opener, going five innings, no earned runs, and one hit. He walked four guys, but he struck out six. Red Sox hitters have been decent against him, hitting .250 over 44 at-bats. Jarren Duran is probably the best, going 3-for-8 against him with a homer. 

Boston Red Sox pitcher Sonny Gray (54) delivers a pitch in the third inning between the Cincinnati Reds and Boston Red Sox at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Saturday, March 28, 2026.

The Red Sox are off to a worse start, believe it or not. They are 1-5 to begin the year and have lost their past five games. Pitching seems to be a bit of a problem for them. They currently have a 4.91 ERA, and they've allowed six or more runs in four of the five losses. The only game that Boston has won was the opener and they won that game 3-0. The Red Sox offense has some opportunities at the moment as well, but Wilyer Abreu is definitely locked in at the moment. He is hitting .417 with three homers and six RBIs. The Red Sox are sending Sonny Gray to the hill today. He didn't have a great debut, allowing six hits and three earned runs over four innings. I do think Gray still has the potential to be a great addition to this Red Sox rotation. He can be a difference maker when he is on, so Boston fans shouldn't be worried after one bad start. The bad news is that Padres hitters have been pretty good against Gray in the past. They are hitting .314 against him with Manny Machado, Nick Castellanos, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. all doing well against him.

I don't think past performance is always a great indicator of future performance, but I do think that some guys just hit certain guys really well. The Padres have a lot of hitters who hit Gray well. King isn't a super well-known pitcher in the league, but he is very talented and could be a true ace of the rotation. The Red Sox are playing their home opener, and the Padres are playing a very early game for them after traveling across the country (they were off yesterday), but if you're giving me a team with the better teacher and a solid lineup at plus money, I'll take it. Give me San Diego +104.

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