Kentucky Will Cover Against Gators

Florida vs. Kentucky, 8:00 ET

One step forward, and then two steps back in college hoops as I dropped both plays yesterday. The Texas Tech play was fine until the last couple of seconds as TCU was able to complete a seven-point victory on a spread of 5.5. UNC looked bad against Georgia Tech and they were never able to pull away. Ultimately they lost outright, so that one is completely on me. I should've taken the points with the home dog. I'm looking to avoid a similar fate tonight as I have a play on the game between the Florida Gators and the Kentucky Wildcats.

Florida hasn't been an overly relevant college program in a few years. Sure they will occasionally make the tournament, and they even get some NBA talent to play for them, but it is not as consistent as it once was. This season has been a solid one for them to this point. They are sitting at 14-6 with a 4-3 conference record right now. All but one of their losses have come on the road or on a neutral court this season. The one exception was a two-point loss against this exact team, the Wildcats as they lost 87-85 on their home court. Now they have to travel to Kentucky to take them on. In the first game, the teams combined to put up 172 points and neither team shot particularly well. Florida was just 29% from deep in the game and only hit 18 of their 29 free throw attempts. Ultimately that might have been the team's downfall. They had one more free throw attempt than the Wildcats, but Kentucky hit 20 instead of the 18. The Gators spread the ball around rather well with five guys averaging double-digit scoring and another two that score seven or more points per game. They even have nine guys on the team that play 10 or more minutes. That can be difficult to game plan for.

Kentucky coach John Calipari's daughter Erin destroyed an online troll after the Wildcats lost to South Carolina. (Credit: Getty Images)

Kentucky is 15-4 on the season and 5-2 in the conference. They have been ranked most of the season and you have to expect them to at least potentially make some noise in the big dance. In a year like this, where anyone has a chance, it seems like they could get hot at the right time and make a run. For the four losses this year, they lost against Kansas on a neutral floor, had a head-scratching loss against UNC Wilmington, a road, overtime loss to Texas A&M, and a road loss to the Gamecocks. Those last two losses came in the last two games. They did get back on track in their last game, a road win over Arkansas. They have to be excited to be back at home. The Wildcats should see a boost in scoring and shooting overall as they return to their home court and have the crowd behind them. In the first game of the season between the two, they had five players get into double figures, three of them were guards. As usual, they were led by Antonio Reeves, and he didn't even play a very good game.

Can Florida win the game? Of course. Will they? I kind of doubt it. Florida has lost six games and five of them have come on a neutral court or on the road. Only two of those five losses were close games. The other three were by nine or more points. I like Kentucky to win this game, and I think the six should be something they can cover. There may be some 5.5's out there so shop around, but I'll take them -6 at my local book.

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