Keep Riding Cole At Value Lines

Rangers vs. Yankees, 1:35 ET

Most of what you will hear about today - if you watch a baseball game or some sort of recap show - will be the fact that the Angels put up a stupid amount of runs in Coors Field. It was interesting to see it because it was a "hitting is contagious" situation, not just blasting home runs (though they did hit some of those). You might hear about it today, but don't expect a ton of runs in this game between the Rangers and the Yankees.

One of the most improved teams in baseball, the Rangers, take on the Yankees in an afternoon matchup in New York. They've done a very good job of pressing all the right buttons this season. They are hitting well as a team; their current team average is .271. They lead all of Major League Baseball in both hits and runs. I already said, hitting is contagious and the Rangers are down with the sickness. Despite an injury to their offseason acquisition, Jacob deGrom, their pitching staff has been excellent as well. Today, their other acquisition, Nathan Eovaldi, takes the hill for the Rangers. He's sporting a 2.80 ERA and living up to the talent level he sometimes displayed with the Red Sox. He's been filthy on the road with a 2.37 ERA, and was phenomenal in May. June hasn't been as solid as he's allowed four earned runs in two of the four starts. Having been in the AL East, the Yankees hitters are very familiar with him. Collectively, they have hit .279 against him, including 29 RBIs over 208 at-bats.

Nathan Eovaldi has pitched well for the Rangers, but he's not the best pitcher in this game. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The Yankees have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and are above the .500 mark, but it seems like a ship that is just barely staying afloat. As New York rocks back-and-forth in the water, there are ships cruising past them from Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Their team hitting has underperformed this season and a team that was scoring a ton of runs last season has 120 fewer runs on the season than today's opponent. It isn't one specific person that isn't doing well for the Yankees, maybe they need better timely hitting. I'm not really sure what the correction is, because their pitching seems to be keeping them in most games. They get their star pitcher today, Gerrit Cole on the mound. Cole's biggest problem last season was the home run ball, and he has controlled that a bit this year. He has a solid home ERA but he has allowed seven of his nine homers in Yankee Stadium. Cole had a tough May but has been awesome in June with just five earned runs allowed in 25.1 innings.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the game go under 7.5 runs, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it went over. So, that's a weird way of saying that I don't want to touch the total. I'm playing the Yankees in this one. I think it makes sense given the way that Cole and Eovaldi are pitching. Cole is pitching very well, and Eovaldi hasn't been as sharp in June. I'll take the Yankees at a reasonable -120.

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