Kamala Harris Now More Likely To Win Presidency Than Joe Biden, Betting Market Says

"‘It’s Her Party Now," the front page of the Drudge Report read Wednesday morning, referencing the rising momentum for Kamala Harris to replace Joe Biden atop the Democrat ticket.

The betting market agrees with Drudge's assessment.

Harris is now more likely to win the presidency than Biden, per the betting market aggregator OddsChecker. As of publication (note: the lines can change every few minutes), Harris is +680 to win compared to +1200 for Biden. 

Donald Trump remains the heavy favorite at -139.

For reference, Harris was +4300 on Friday, trailing Biden, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and Michelle Obama.

Much has changed since then.

Support for Kamala Harris

Influential Democrat congressman Rep. James Clyburn came out in support of Harris during an appearance on MSNBC Tuesday. 

"I will support Kamala if [Biden] were to step aside. This party should not, in any way, do anything to work around Ms. Harris," Clyburn said. "We should do everything we can to bolster her."

The New York Times, the most powerful media outlet in Washigton, also argued in favor of Harris.  "Kamala Harris Could Win This Election. Let Her," reads a headline from over the weekend.

Further, financial analysts have since warned that campaign laws prevent anyone but Harris from inheriting Biden's $200 million war chest.

As for Biden, his drop from second to third follows a report from Puck which obtained internal polling data from Open Labs showing his support crumbling in battleground states.

"A confidential polling memo circulating among anxious Democrats is confirming some of their worst fears: President Joe Biden’s support has started to tumble in key electoral battlegrounds in the wake of his disastrous debate performance in Atlanta, and Biden’s diminished standing is now putting previously noncompetitive states like New Hampshire, Virginia, and New Mexico in play for Donald Trump," reported Puck News, which obtained the internal data polling.

Biden now trails Trump by seven in both Pennsylvania and Michigan – two states Biden almost certainly has to win in November. Biden also lost ground in Arizona and Georgia, both of which he won in 2020.

We put together the following electoral map, in the event Open Labs' polling holds:

Later Tuesday evening, a report from the Washington Post cited sources close to Barack Obama revealing the former president has privately expressed concern about the outcome of Biden staying on the ticket.

"Former president Barack Obama has privately told allies who have reached out to him that President Biden’s already tough path to reelection grew more challenging after his shaky debate performance on Thursday — a harsher assessment of the presidential race than his public comments, according to several people familiar with his remarks," reads the report.

Obama is, unequivocally, the most influential voice in the party. 

"I'm staying in"

Still, Biden maintains he's staying on the ticket. 

"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win," Biden reportedly told staffers on a White House call Wednesday.

The White House has also denied a New York Times report claiming Biden "told an ally he is weighing whether to continue in the race." White House Senior Deputy Press Secretary Andrew Bates called the report "absolutely false."

Ultimately, we appear headed toward a power struggle. Joe Biden wants to stay in the race. Democrats and their most critical media allies – based on a week's worth of leaks – do not think he can win.

If Biden stays in the race and loses, the Democrat Party will forever shun him and his family for staying in the race and allowing Trump to return to the White House. 

At some point, Biden and his wife Jill could settle for the easy way out and be remembered for beating Trump in 2020.

As for Kamala Harris, internal polling suggests she'd fare better than Biden in most battleground states. However, she is a notoriously unpopular politician – see the 2020 primary. Trump would likely be favored to defeat her as well, even if the margins are slimmer. 

At least Harris can blame racism if she loses to Trump. We can see it now: America wasn't ready for a woman of color, so they voted for a Nazi.