If Italy Can Continue To Keep Line Moving They Can Upset Venezuela

Venezuela vs. Italy, 8:00 ET

We are almost at the finish line for the World Baseball Classic. If you haven't watched any of it, I suggest you set aside some time tonight and flip this one on. I'm sure most people don't realize the process for the tournament, but this game, just like all of the others that weren't part of Pool Play, are single elimination games. Any time you get do-or-die in sports it leads to big things and memorable moments. This will be no different. Tonight we have Venezuela taking on Italy with a chance to go to the Championship Game tomorrow. 

Venezuela has been very impressive in these games. Any team that can knock off the Champs from last time has to be doing something right. Venezuela took down Japan in their first Quarterfinals game, winning 8-5. It was a game full of emotion as they led off the game with a homer in the first at-bat of the game. The problem is that in the bottom of the first inning, they allowed a homer to Shohei Ohtani, who tied the game up. After that, the Venezuelans took the lead, but it didn't last long. Gleyber Torres doubled and knocked in a run for them, but the bottom of the third got ugly. Venezuela allowed four earned to the Japanese. The long ball was a friend of Venezuela, though. They knocked in two on Maikel Garcia's bomb, and then in the sixth, the Venezuelans took a lead they would never relinquish with a Wilyer Abreu homer - a three-run shot. If you haven't seen it, you need to go watch and see how crazy the crowd went. Baseball is fun when people actually care and show emotion. 

Mar 14, 2026; Miami, FL, United States; Venezuela catcher Salvador Perez (13) celebrates with first baseman Willson Contreras (40) and second baseman Gleyber Torres (25) after winning the quarterfinal game of the 2026 World Baseball Classic against Japan at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Italy didn't have quite as dramatic of a victory, but I'm sure they were happy enough about winning their games. To be clear, it was a bit of a nail-biter, because they won by two runs, but they never trailed in the game, and they had two four-run innings. Just like Venezuela and Japan, Puerto Rico's Willi Castro hit a homer to start the game. Italy wasn't phased as they matched that with a run scoring single. Then they got another run-scoring single. Then another run-scoring single… you get the picture. The Italian team has done this the entire World Baseball Classic - they are stringing together hits, while a lot of other teams are playing longball. You're probably well aware, but hits and contact hitting are more reliable than swinging for the fences. Outside of those two innings they didn't score, but it doesn't matter when you're putting crooked numbers on the board. 

This game will feature a few different storylines. The pitching edge probably goes to the Italians. Aaron Nola is the better starter, in my opinion. However, there are guys like Ronald Acuna Jr. who is every familiar with him. And, he is pretty good against him, hitting .308 with four homers in about 60 at-bats. I like the Venezuelan lineup. I think they are probably the more complete roster, but they do rely on hitting the ball out of the yard. Italy has been pretty good at preventing that. I'm going to grab Italy on the run line at +100. They are getting a run and a half. I don't need them to win, if they can keep it close, which they've done a good job of, this is a winner. They just need to keep the line moving, something they've done better than anyone in this tournament. 

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