Indy Should Win, But Will They Cover?

Alabama vs. Indiana, 4:00 ET

We are on to the starter or appetizer here on January 1, 2026 as the College Football spotlight continues with the second game of the College Football Playoffs. I'm excited to see where we go in this one as we have a historic program battling against one that is upstart and looking to claim glory for the first time ever. Alabama has had a confusing year, but that can all disappear if they can knock off Indiana in the Rose Bowl. 

Alabama comes into the game having finished their regular season campaign at 11-3. There were some questions about if this team would get a bit to the College Football Playoffs, and honestly, I'm a bit surprised they did make it. If this was Tennessee or USC or something, would we see the same grace be given to them? I won't spend a ton of time trying to get into the minds of the selection committee. That's not my job. My job is to tell you about this Alabama team, and as mentioned earlier, they have been a bit confusing. They started the year with an ugly loss to Florida State. The team got essentially nothing going on offense and lost 31-17 to a team that didn't even make a Bowl Game. They ran off eight straight wins, including four consecutive in a gauntlet over Georgia (in Georgia), Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. At that point they did look like a lock to make the playoffs. Losing at home against Oklahoma put that into jeopardy once again. Finally, they were absolutely crushed by the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship game. It was an ugly loss no matter how you look at it, but their ground game got a total of -3 yards. Ty Simpson picked a bad time to have his worst game of the year. 

WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA - NOVEMBER 28: Kaelon Black #8 of the Indiana Hoosiers celebrates a touchdown with Elijah Sarratt #13 during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium on November 28, 2025 in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Indiana has been perfect to this point and has to feel like they deserve the crown after winning the Big 10 Championship. Their quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, won the Heisman. Now their sights are set on winning the National Championship. I suppose you could question if this team is truly great, but you would probably be doing a bit of a disservice to them. They did go into Oregon and beat them 30-20. They hosted a ranked Illinois team and beat them so badly that they might've claimed some of the Land of Lincoln territory afterward. The only other ranked opponent they beat was Ohio State, which they won in essentially a home game for themselves. It was played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. At their best, they were dominant, having an efficient offense that demoralized defenses. At their worst, they still won games, but they were close games - they only beat Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State by five or fewer points. The team can beat you through the air or on the ground, having scored 38 passing touchdowns and 29 rushing ones. 

I spoke mostly about the Hoosiers' offense, but their defense was equally nasty. They got stops when needed, and found ways to force their opponent into turnovers at opportune times. Alabama has a strong defense as well, but they've shown they are susceptible to being exploited at times as well. I'd love to tell you that Alabama will have a great game plan, but I really haven't seen that from Ken Deboer outside of some of the Georgia games. Statistically, there are some good ones that Alabama is better than Indiana at - Red Zone defense, for one. But, they also have allowed 15 fewer trips to the Red Zone than Alabama. The thing is, I think Alabama has played a tougher schedule, and I do think the team will be a bit more prepared for this game. I'm not saying they win, but I think asking Indiana to cover seven here is a bit much. Indiana's rushing defense is great, but Alabama will force the issue because of their last game against Georgia. I'm going to take Alabama +7, but, again, I do think Indiana wins if that matters in any way to you. 

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