Forget Saving Its Season, Will New York Cover The Spread Vs. Indiana In Game 5?

America will stop watching basketball if the Indiana Pacers (3-1) eliminate the New York Knicks (1-3) at Madison Square Garden Thursday in Game 5 of the 2025 Eastern Conference Playoffs. Let that be a warning to the NBA, whose TV ratings continue to drop due to these lame 3-point shootouts and a lack of American stars. 

Related: CAN'T WE STOP WITH THE ANTHONY EDWARDS IS NEXT MICHAEL JORDAN TALK? 

I might be taking crazy pills because I'm a fan, but I still think the Knicks are better than the Pacers. These teams are splitting the "four factors" in this series and New York should've won Game 1. Or maybe not. Maybe Indiana is the better team, and I'm blinded by my fandom. 

However, just hear me out, the Knicks are getting the bad end of shooting variance. It's not like Indy's defense is shutting them down. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, New York went 13-for-24 on field goals (54.2%) at the rim in Game 4, which is impossibly bad. They averaged 66.1% during the regular season. 

New York Knicks C Karl-Anthony Towns attacks the rim vs. the Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam during Game 2 of the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals. (Photo: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, the Pacers have a soft frontcourt that New York All-Star big Karl-Anthony Towns historically dominates. Towns is scoring 25.8 points on 66.8% true shooting (.524/.455/.844) and grabbing 11.5 rebounds in this series. KAT's 20-point, 8-rebound fourth quarter in Game 3 gave the Knicks their only win in the conference finals. 

Also, New York wing Mikal Bridges went 2-for-10 on 2-pointers in Game 4 and a bunch of those were good looks. He would iso Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton, back him down, and shoot easy turnaround 10-foot jumpers that kept front-rimming or lipping out. Indy is making Knicks PG Jalen Brunson work. Yet, he is still averaging 33.3 points on 48.3% shooting in this series. 

Indiana, on the other hand, is just shooting out of its mind. Pacers SG Aaron Nesmith is hitting 61.9% of his 3-pointers in this series. Indy forward Pascal Siakam is shooting 54.1% from the field and 50.0% from 3-point range. Again, maybe I'm crazy, but the shooting for both teams will regress or progress to the mean. 

Finally, the market hasn't moved much from its power ratings pre-series. New York closed as -6 favorites for Game 1 and is favored -4 for Game 5 at the time of writing. This suggests that the Knicks are a better team on a neutral floor. Hopefully, for my sake, they don't run out of games to prove it. 

Best Bet: New York Knicks -4 (-110), up to -5, at DraftKings 

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