Imanaga Will Keep Run Alive

Cubs vs. Mets, 7:10 ET

Growing up, I was always told there was only one baseball team that I really should never root for: The New York Mets. I think it had something to do with the 1969 Cubs collapsing and the Mets winning. I never really cared to ask the question, I just knew I didn't like them. The Mets knocked the Cubs out of the playoffs when I was younger, and frankly have been a bit of a thorn in the Cubs side for years. Tonight the Cubs and Mets square off in the third game of a four-game set. 

The Cubs are off to a nice start but this road trip hasn't been ideal for them. They are just 2-3 on the trip and they've only scored 16 runs in the five games. For reference, they gave up 17 runs in one game to the Red Sox. Obviously, that throws of the statistics, but being outscored 28-16 in five games isn't ideal for any team. Collectively the team is fairly average with hitting, but they do find ways to manufacture runs. For example, their team batting average is a point lower than the Mets, but they have scored 21 more runs than today's opponent on the season. So far, the club has dealt with some injuries so they should be rather happy with the 18-12 record that they have. One guy that has done more than carry his weight is Shota Imanaga. The Cubs are 5-0 in his starts and he has a solid 4-0 record with a 0.98 ERA and a superb 0.80 WHIP. He doesn't qualify for the league leader category in either of these because he's only thrown 27.2 total innings over five starts, but there was only one outing where he threw fewer than five innings. The Cubs look like they are limiting him to around 90 pitches per game, but that was enough to get back-to-back quality starts. The question is: Will the league figure him out, or is he really that good of a pitcher? Only time will tell on this one.

Apr 30, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) throws to second to get a force out after fielding a ground ball hit by Chicago Cubs first baseman Patrick Wisdom (not pictured) during the fifth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Trying to not talk about the Mets 2023 season can be a bit difficult for me. The club is so drastically different this season compared to last year. The goals are different, the team is obviously different, and the expectations are different. Last season a .500 record would be a disappointment. This season, it almost seems like the Mets are overperforming. The clump has a .239 batting average and only 128 runs scored this season. They are getting most of their damage by home runs instead of stringing together hits, which explains a lot about the team. Relying on the home run is a tough way to go through the season. I don't think they can rely on the long ball today against Imanaga, though he has allowed a homer in both of his past two starts. The Mets send out Jose Butto to the hill today. He is making his fifth start of the season. In his first two games he allowed just one earned run on five hits over 12 innings. In his next two starts, he allowed six earned runs over 10 innings. It is possible that the walks are what does Butto in. He has provided free passes for 12 hitters over the 22 innings and it seems like teams were cashing in the past two games as he gave up eight walks. 

The Cubs aren't the most patient team in the world, but it seems like if they can let Butto get out of control, they will be able to find their way on base. Imanaga has been stellar for the Cubs, arguably the best offseason signing in the Majors to this point. I do think he will be a little more "average" overall, but right now, we have to ride the hot hand while we have it. Take the Cubs through five innings at -130. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024