Imanaga Will Continue To Dominate Opponents

Cubs vs. Brewers, 7:40 ET

It was not a pretty day for me, and really hasn't been a great couple of days. I ended up losing both of my plays that I had yesterday as the Angels won the game, but not the first five innings. If you took the under on that game you were able to cash that play, but if you took the under through five you would've lost. It was one of those games where I feel like I had the right read, just went with the wrong play. To be clear, that's not an excuse. A loss is a loss, and I need to correct it. I'll look to avenge the loss today with some guys who have treated me very well this season as the Cubs take on the Brewers. 

I played the Cubs game when they opened the series two days ago against the Brewers. My recommendation was to fade Justin Steele, the Cubs starter, because he has struggled since he returned from the injured list. Steele ended up pitching a bit of a gem before the bullpen allowed five earned runs to the Brewers in the bottom of the eighth. The Brewers took the first game 5-1. Yesterday, the two teams once again struggled to get much offense going against the starters. Freddy Peralta allowed one solo shot in the third, but there was no scoring again until the Cubs blew another save (a recurring theme this season) and the Brewers tied it up in the ninth. Fortunately for the Cubs fans, they were able to score five runs in the top of the 10th inning. The bullpen again tried to blow the game in the bottom half of the frame, allowing two runs to their opponent before shutting the door. The final of 6-3 was a heartbreaker for those that bet the under for the game, but nonetheless it was a well-pitched game by both starters. The starting pitching for the Cubs has gone 14 innings, allowed just three hits, no earned runs, and struck out 18 hitters. The Brewers starters have been really good as well, going 11.2 innings, allowing six hits, and one earned run. We have another good matchup today. 

May 28, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA;  Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames (27) drives in a run during the ninth inning against the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The headliner in this contest is that the second favorite for the Cy Young is taking the ball for the Cubs. Shota Imanaga, currently at +350 for the award, is making his tenth start of the season. Imanaga has been outstanding for the Cubs, as you'd expect if he is a Cy Young favorite, but let's share a bit about what he has done. He has allowed exactly two earned runs this month in 26 innings. He has allowed a total of five earned runs this year and three of them are the result of home runs. He's only allowed a total of seven runs for the year. Imanaga's WHIP is equally impressive as he is at 0.91, only issuing nine walks this season and 40 hits over 53.2 innings. He's also struck out at least seven hitters in his past five starts. The Cubs are 8-1 in his starts. He's been ridiculously good and this is the first time the Brewers will face him. On the other side, Bryce Wilson is taking the ball. He's been solid for the Brewers all season in split work between the bullpen and starting duties. This month, Wilson has thrown 20 innings and allowed just six earned runs, three of them coming via the longball. He hasn't completed six innings in any of his past three starts. You have to expect that the Brewers are probably going to lean on him for four or five innings and then turn the game to the bullpen. Cubs hitters are 15-for-60 against him with six extra-base hits. 

The fact that we can get Imanaga and the Cubs for -130 today is a deal in my book. I'm going to take the Cubs for the full game in this one. They are drastically priced higher in the first five innings at -175. I do think the run line is a good look through five so I'll take the Cubs -0.5 through five as well and I'll also play the Brewers under 3.5 runs for the game. The way Imanaga has thrown, I'd expect they don't score more than two runs off of him and it is possible that we can get him to go six or seven innings in this game. I'll play all three plays in this one. 

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