Illinois Should Be Favored By More Against Spartans

Another 1-1 night in college hoops yesterday so I am switching it up a bit today and only playing one game instead of multiple. The slate isn't huge, but there are some solid matchups on it. I've gone one circled that I think we can take advantage of tonight and it just so happens to be one of the best games on the schedule. Tonight, we look to steal a unit in the game between the Michigan State Spartans and their Big 10 rival, the Illinois Fighting Illini.

Michigan State has had one of the strangest seasons I can remember in recent years for them. They started the season ranked and had an overtime, home, upset loss to James Madison. It turned out that James Madison was actually good, so in retrospect, it wasn't a terrible loss, but it was still rather surprising. They bounced back and beat Southern Indiana (as they should've) before losing to Duke. Their next three losses came at the hands of ranked Arizona, ranked Wisconsin, and Nebraska. Then, on a neutral court, they blew out ranked Baylor. I'm just not sure when this team wants to show up or not. On the season, they have faced a Big 10 team four times and have lost three of the games. Are they not physical enough? Is their athleticism the problem? I'm not quite sure. They are led by guard Tyson Walker who is in a groove shooting 50% from the floor and 41% from deep. He does have backcourt help as two other guards are averaging 10 or more points. The problem is that Illinois can punish you inside and also beat you from deep. Michigan State can't guard both.

COLUMBUS, OHIO - MARCH 19: Head coach Tom Izzo of the Michigan State Spartans reacts against the Marquette Golden Eagles during the second half in the second round game of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Nationwide Arena on March 19, 2023 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

The Illini are having a great start to the year with an 11-3 record and are 2-1 in conference play to start. I covered the Michigan State losses so it is only fair to do the same for Illinois. They have lost to Marquette (on Illinois home court), Tennesee on the road (ranked 17 at the time), and they just lost to Purdue, by five in Indiana. None of the losses were inexplicable, none of them were blowouts. The difference between Michigan State and Illinois seems to be consistency. They are playing tough in each game, they are getting their offense going in most games, and defensively they try - which is a big key even at the college level. They employ a really interesting combination of forwards on the team. Traditionally when you think of a forward, you could consider someone that is a bruiser, but the Illini have more of the current versions. These guys stretch the floor, have some height, and do a little bit of everything. Three of their forwards are in the top five for assists per game on the team. They aren't great outside shooters, with most of them shooting in the low 30s, but you still have to respect it enough to at least cover them if they are behind the line. The Illinois guards are better outside shooters and Terrence Shannon Jr, their leading score can hurt you from deep, midrange, and even the free throw line. I don't think the Spartans will have an answer for him, and if they do, they probably won't for the Illinois forwards.

I think the line is too low on this game. Illinois is better than a 3.5-point favorite against this Spartans team. What has Michigan State shown you in the majority of their games? Inconsistency. Now they come to Illinois in a game against a team that is coming off of a hard-fought loss. Illinois is looking to get on a winning streak again. Take the Illini in a game they should win by 7 or more.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024