I'll Keep Buying On Sale

Braves vs. Padres, 4:10 ET

With the All-Star Break looming, there isn't a Sunday Night Baseball game being featured. Now, Sunday Night Baseball isn't the same draw that Sunday Night Football is, but it is nice to have just one game going that you can focus on and enjoy. To me, I will rarely just watch a baseball game between two teams that I have no interest in unless I'm at the game. Sunday Night Baseball usually is one of the times where I'll break that rule. Watching the game won't matter here though as we will place this bet and just wait to collect our money as the Braves take on the Padres.

The Braves should be proud of the first half of the season (though, just for the record, when you play almost 95 of the 162 games, I think we need to stop calling it a first half). They are coming into this game at least ten games over .500 and could leave for the break the same way. I'm not going to talk about what they don't have, because I've done that quite a bit through the first months of the year. Instead, let's focus on what is going well for them. Number one has to be the first-half MVP for the Braves, Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna has shown flashes of brilliance in the past and an ability to carry a team. He's done that for most of this season, being the triple crown leader for the club. Ozuna is hitting .301 with 26 homers and 77 RBIs. If Shohei Ohtani didn't exist, Ozuna would have to be in strong consideration for the MVP. In addition to Ozuna doing well, they have today's starter, Chris Sale. He is on his way to his first Cy Young if he keeps up this season. At 12-3 with a 2.74 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP, he's pitching better than he has in years. Granted, he was dealing with some injuries, but this has been an unbelievable pickup for Atlanta. He's made 17 starts this season, and just three of them have seen him allow three or more earned runs. That's great consistency. He even faced this Padres team at home earlier in the year and dominated them, going seven scoreless innings while allowing five hits, no walks, and striking out nine.

San Diego Padres OF Jurickson Profar hits an RBI double vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. (Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)

On the other side of the diamond, I think the Padres have to be happy with how they've ended up here as well. To start the season, they once again looked like they were going to be a disaster. It is too early to say that they have fully corrected things as they have lost five straight at the time of this writing (pending tonight's result against Atlanta) and could end up below .500 to start the second half of the campaign. They've floated around the .500 number for much of the season, but as recently as July 5th, they were six games over and looking like they might make it to the playoffs. A team that is loaded with talent, and seemingly willing to take shots and spend money just hasn't gotten the same results as the Dodgers team they look like they are trying to replicate. Still, with the record they have, and seeing that Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are all injured (not to mention that Xander Bogaerts was on the IL for a good amount of time) the Padres should be proud of where they stand at the end of the first half. Tonight, they have a tough task ahead of them and ask Randy Vasquez to battle Sale. Vasquez has had an interesting campaign so far with a mixed bag of results. Lately, he has been much better and has only allowed three earned runs over his last 15.1 innings. He has been better at home, posting a 3.41 ERA on his home mound compared to 6.15 on the road. He faced Sale in the aforementioned Braves game, and he was on the losing end, but pitched a quality start with six innings, ten hits allowed, and three earned runs. 

Sorry to say it to the Padres fans out there, but I can't see the team winning this game against Sale. Vasquez isn't as poor of a pitcher as I thought he was last time I played a game of his, but he's not pitching like Sale. I think the best play in this one is to just go with the early lead for the Braves. I'm going to back them through five innings on the run line. I do think they probably win the full game by more than a run as well, but I'll just stick to the first five as I want to isolate the starter's performance a bit. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024