Road Favorite Red Flags: Why Pittsburgh Steelers Can Hang With Houston Texans

The three-day NFL playoff bender concludes Monday with the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Houston Texans in the 2026 AFC Wild Card Round. Pittsburgh, the lowest power-rated team in the AFC playoffs, is a +3 home underdog and +130 on the moneyline, with a 38.5-point total at DraftKings. 

Houston enters the playoffs on a nine-game winning streak, highlighted by victories over the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers. The Steelers didn't clinch a postseason berth until the final play of Week 18 when Baltimore Ravens PK Tyler Loop missed a would-be game-winning kick at the end of regulation.  

Pittsburgh has lost six consecutive playoff games, five by double digits, including three straight by 14+ points. However, this is a prime opportunity for Mike Tomlin to shake off his recent playoff struggles. Tomlin is a god at home on Monday Night Football: 12-1 straight up with a +9.0 scoring margin.

Bet The Steelers Because The Texans Don’t Win By Margin

Houston has played in 12 one-score games this season, which is two more than the Steelers. The Texans are 28th in success rate and 24th in EPA/play, according to Sūmer Sports. Pittsburgh, by comparison, ranks 19th in success rate and 15th in EPA/play.

Furthermore, Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans will try to out-Tomlin Tomlin, and that just doesn’t work. Both coaches will hype up their players, and this will be old-school, smash-mouth football. 

Yet, Tomlin consistently pulls rabbits out of hats. "Tomlin Voodoo" is the only random thing you can count on in the NFL, which is why Pittsburgh is a good bet as an underdog. If you’re catching points with the team that gets the breaks, you usually cash the ticket.

Matchup Edges Favor Pittsburgh In The Trenches

The Steelers have better win rates in three of the four line-of-scrimmage situations, per ESPN. Pittsburgh holds the edge in pass protection and pass rush efficiency. Both defenses generate a lot of pressure, and I trust Aaron Rodgers to get rid of the ball quicker against a sick pass rush than C.J. Stroud. 

Speaking of which, I envision Rodgers getting the ball out quickly vs. Houston’s aggressive defense, and Pittsburgh RBs Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren making plays in the open field. Pittsburgh led the NFL in YAC per completion this season. Plus, Rodgers gets his deep ball threat, WR D.K. Metcalf, back after a two-game suspension. 

The Houston Texans visit the Pittsburgh Steelers Monday at Acrisure Stadium for a 2026 AFC Wild Card game. (Photo Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images)

Either way, Rodgers was throwing seeds against the Ravens. And yes, Rodgers had more time vs. Baltimore’s weak pass-rush than he should have against Houston. But still, Rodgers was putting the ball into tight windows, which is a good sign if you’re a Steelers fan.

Houston’s High-Leverage Offense Is A Problem For Road Favorite Backers

Finally, I don’t like betting road favorites who are bad in high-leverage situations. The Texans are 22nd in third-down conversion rate and 30th in red-zone scoring rate. Winning on third down and in the red zone is how you win by margin, aka cover spreads.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-115) 

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