Houston Could Struggle Against Duke

Duke vs. Houston, 9:40 ET

We are reaching the end of the Sweet 16 as we already have six of the eight games completed in this round and six teams advanced to the Elite Eight. I'm excited for tonight's games because I think there will be some really good basketball. I've said this before, I prefer when the bracket is a bit chalky as we get into the later stages of the tournament. At this point, it feels like anyone can win it, and when you get an 11-seed or something in the Final Four, it really doesn't feel like they have a legitimate chance. It feels like eventually they will crumble, and that is typically what happens. Villanova won as an eight seed almost 40 years ago, that's as close as we've gotten. Tonight we have a #4-seeded Duke taking on the #1-seed Houston for a trip to the Elite Eight. 

Duke is the team the world loves to hate. I'll be honest, I loved them when JJ Redick was there, and then when Jon Scheyer played there. Redick was just cool, cocky, and good. Scheyer was from Illinois so I heard about him all the time, and was happy to see him playing on the bigger stage. Still, the hatred for the school is a bit overstated, because if we are being realistic, the school doesn't have all that much success. They are consistently ranked very highly in the regular season and tournament. For all of the hype, and the number of top-tier talent that they have, they fail quite a bit. Yes, of course, Duke is one of the best programs in the country. This team they have is actually one of the more interesting ones I can remember as it is a balance of old and new players which I think provides them with their best opportunity to win. In the tournament, Jared McCain, a freshman, has come alive and scored 45 points in the two games. They still have Kyle Filipowski down low to grab boards and rack up points. Jeremy Roach is the point guard holding it together and trying to be a defensive presence as well. It is a well constructed team, but this Houston team is very good and will cause matchup problems. 

KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 15: Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) after an assist in the second half of a Big 12 tournament semifinal game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Houston Cougars on Mar 15, 2024 at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Houston has looked great this season with the exception of the Big 12 Championship game against Iowa State. In that game, they lost by 28 points and I have gone on the record saying it could be the best thing to happen to them. It may have been the wakeup call they needed to see that they are vulnerable. However, it also laid out a blueprint for a team to beat them. In that game, Iowa State held Houston to just 4-for-22 from deep and just 15-for-56 from the floor overall. They were outscored in the paint, an area that could be an issue in this game against Duke. Their edge probably comes from their guards who are hounds and pester opposing defenses. Jay Bilas said that Jamal Shead could be the best on-ball defender in all of college hoops. He might be able to lock down McCain and give Houston the edge that they need. They will need to shoot effectively from deep in this game and make the Duke defense work. Duke isn't an elite defense, but they shift well and play well in transition. Houston also doesn't turn the ball over much which helps them be able to set their defense.

I think Duke is a live dog in this game with the balance they have. If this is a truly close game and someone needs a bucket, Duke has the personnel that can get it done. If a team needs a stop, Houston has the edge in that regard. I actually think Duke can cover this game though. I'm a little worried the under is too low of a total even with the pace of Houston and their style of play so I lean to the over. I'll take Duke with the points in this one and wouldn't be surprised to see them knock out Houston. Houston's offense is not always crisp enough and if they don't shoot well, Duke will win this. 

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