Houston Cougars At Iowa State Cyclones Pick Based On Shot Profile, Intangibles

This is one of the most anticipated regular-season college basketball games this season. The #6 Iowa State Cyclones (22-3, 9-3 Big XII) host #2 Houston Cougars (23-2, 11-1 Big XII) at Hilton Coliseum in a conference showdown between two Final Four contenders. Houston-Iowa State is the second of an ESPN doubleheader, tipping off at 9 p.m. ET. 

The Cougars are on a six-game winning streak and 4-2 against the spread during that stretch. However, only one of those wins came against a top-25 team in Ken Pom's rankings, BYU. Houston has one of the best backcourts in the country, featuring its two leading scorers, senior Emmanuel Sharp (16.6 points per game) and freshman Kingston Flemings (16.4 PPG). 

Iowa State is 3-1 straight up and 2-2 ATS this month, but waxed the #9 Kansas Jayhawks 74-56 this past Saturday, avenging a 21-point loss in Kansas earlier this year. Per Ken Pom, the Cyclones have the second-best player in the conference, forward Joshua Johnson. Plus, ISU forward Milan Momcilovic leads the nation in true shooting rate at 73.2%. 

This is the fifth Houston-Iowa State meeting since the Cougars joined the Big XII in 2023. They've split the first four games, but the Cyclones are 3-0-1 ATS in those contests. Without further ado, here's how I'm betting on Monday's clash. 

Houston Cougars at Iowa State Cyclones Betting Odds (FanDuel) 

• Moneyline: Houston (+118) | Iowa State (-142)
• Spread: Cougars +2.5 (-112) | CYCLONES -2.5 (-108)
• Total — 134.5 — Over (-115) | Under (-105)

The betting public loves a brand name, and right now, Houston is the "it" program for people who like to pretend they understand defensive efficiency. Yet, ISU is bigger and more experienced, with more roster continuity. But if you actually watch the tape and dig into the shot profiles, the Cougars are walking into a buzzsaw in Ames.  

This isn't just about "Hilton Magic". (Though the Cyclones' home-court advantage is arguably the most underrated hostile environment in the country, and Houston's efficiency declines significantly on the road.) It’s about a fundamental mismatch in how these two teams generate points, aka "shot quality". 

Out of 365 DI basketball programs, Houston is 364th in average 2-point-attempt distance, per Ken Pom. The Cougars are 357th in offensive free-throw-attempt rate, too. Meaning, they settle for too many inefficient long-mid-range jumpers instead of attacking the rim. In contrast, ISU gets more dunks and layups, according to Bart Torvik. 

Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey defense Houston Cougars guard Milos Uzan at Fertitta Center in Texas. (Photo credit: Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Also, Iowa State has the perimeter defense to frustrate Houston's guards. Cyclones senior PG Tamin Lipsey has been selected to two Big XII All-Defensive teams and leads the conference in steals per game. Lipsey has 125 starts in four years at Iowa State and is familiar with the Cougars head coach, Kelvin Sampson's system. 

I bet the Cyclones -1.5 Sunday, which I gave out in OutKick's newsletter for Monday. The market has since bet ISU up to -2.5, and I'd still play it at that number. Houston is one of the best programs in college basketball under Sampson, so the line movement toward Iowa State is "sharp". Or at least I hope it is. 

Prediction: Iowa State 71, Houston 66

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