Rickie Fowler Headlines Five Razor-Sharp Picks For 2026 Valero Texas Open

Since this is the final event before the Masters, some of the best golfers on the PGA TOUR are using the 2026 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio as a tune-up for Augusta next week. Hence, the Valero has a sneaky strong field, featuring eight golfers in the top 20 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) and reigning champion, Brian Harman. 

Unfortunately, a lot of these odds suck, so I started my betting card with Rickie Fowler and Sepp Straka at +3000 on Kalshi, which are long gone. However, I tweeted these bets out as soon as I made them. From there, I filled out my card with a bunch of longshots since a bunch of random guys have won the Valero over the years. 

I'm betting to win 20 units (u) on my outright picks and backing them with "top-10/20 with ties" bets. My 2026 PGA TOUR bankroll is -6.15u, and I have gone ice-cold since hitting Nico Echavarria at the Cognizant Classic last month. That said, here are my best bets and One-And-Done pick for TPC San Antonio. 

Valero Texas Open 2026 Betting Card 

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change. 

🇺🇸 Rickie Fowler +3021 and Top-10 with ties +280 (0.25u), both via Kalshi. 

🇦🇹 Sepp Straka +3021 and Top-10 with ties +312 (0.25u), both via Kalshi. 

🇺🇸 Max McGreevy +8800 via DraftKings and Top-20 with ties +280 (0.38u) via Kalshi. 

🇺🇸 Austin Smotherman +9245 and Top-20 with ties +489 (0.25u), both via Kalshi. 

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Jordan Smith +9245 and Top-20 with ties +295 (0.38u), both via Kalshi. 

🇺🇸 William Mouw +11500 via DraftKings and Top-20 with ties +373 (0.25u) via Kalshi. 

Sepp Straka 

I might as well light money on fire because Straka always sucks when I bet him, but TPC San Antonio is a good fit for his game. That said, Sepp is sixth in my model at Betsperts Golf, which is based on course history, performance at comp courses, and key stats from this season that relate to this TPC San Antonio. 

Straka is accurate with his driver and dialed in with his irons, especially this season, as he’s gained in all six starts. Sepp has finished T18 or better five times this year, including T2 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, T13 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and T8 in his last start, THE PLAYERS Championship. 

There are several guys with better odds who aren’t more likely to win. Straka has been on back-to-back European Ryder Cup teams. He is a four-time PGA TOUR winner, with his first being The Honda Classic in 2022 at PGA National, a course comparable to TPC San Antonio, and his most recent being the 2025 Truist Championship, a "signature event". 

Rickie Fowler

TPC San Antonio is the fourth-most predictive course on TOUR, and Fowler is an elder statesman on TOUR who plays in the Valero Texas Open every year. The six-time PGA TOUR champion has three T17-or-better finishes and a T30 last year, in six career visits to TPC San Antonio.  

Rickie Fowler hits an approach shot during the first round of the 2025 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. (Photo credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images)

Also, even though Rickie missed the cut last week at the Houston Open, he is having a nice season. Fowler has four top-19 finishes this season, including two "signature events": Pebble Beach (T19) and the Arnold Palmer (T9). He has gained strokes with his putter in all seven starts this year, and gained strokes ball-striking (driving and approach) in his first six.

Rickie is only 61st in the OWGR, and the top 50 gets an invitation to the Masters next week. A.k.a., he needs to win. While that’s obviously unlikely, Fowler is 18th in DataGolf.com’s rankings, which is far more respectable than the OWGR, and he is trending in the right direction. 

Max McGreevy

For what it's worth, McGreevy is 11th in my model at Bet The Number. He is 11th in this field in driving accuracy this season, 14th in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach, and third in Par 5 scoring. The Oklahoman has gained strokes with his driver and irons in seven straight starts, including two signature events (Pebble Beach and the Genesis Invitational) and THE PLAYERS, per DataGolf.com. 

Austin Smotherman

This is another flusher with an awful short game. In fact, Smotherman is third in this field in SG: Ball-Striking on TOUR this year and first in SG: Approach. He finished T2 at the 2026 Cognizant Classic, formerly "The Honda Classic," on a similar course to TPC San Antonio that requires driving accuracy, or you're absolutely screwed. 

Plus, Smotherman won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last season (the PGA TOUR's minor league), and finished T8 at the 2026 American Express and T13 at THE PLAYERS last month, at another TPC course (Sawgrass), where you need precise ball-striking. Maybe Smotherman peaked, and he'll go back to the Korn Ferry Tour, but his odds and player profile fit my game plan for the Valero. 

Jordan Smith

The Englishman is flushing the ball this year, gaining strokes with his driver in all eight starts and with his irons in seven of those starts. Smith’s two best finishes are a T16 at the WM Phoenix Open at another TPC course in Scottsdale and third at the Valspar Championship at another tree-lined, parkland-style course with narrow fairways. 

His short game (chipping and putting) has been a disgrace this season, but two flushers who suck at putting have won here recently: Corey Conners in 2019 and 2023 and J.J. Spaun in 2022. Regardless, Smith’s ball-striking, all the previous long-shot Valero Open winners, and his odds at Kalshi inspired me to add him to my card this week. 

William Mouw 

After a brutal start to the season with a T71 followed by three straight missed cuts, Mouw has been playing well recently. He finished T6 at the Cognizant, T24 at THE PLAYERS, and T44 at the Houston Open last week. Mouw has gained strokes with his driver, irons and putter in his last three tournaments. 

Furthermore, he is seventh in this field in SG: Par 5 this season and fourth in Total Driving, which blends distance with accuracy, and second in greens-in-regulation rate over the last 12 rounds, per Betsperts Golf. Mouw was T33 at the Valero last year and gained 3.7 strokes on the field ball-striking. 

Ultimately, I like Mouw's odds vs. upside ratio. He is only 25 years old and was a four-time All-American at Pepperdine University. Mouw won the 2025 ISCO Championship, a PGA TOUR alternate event, the same week as the Genesis Scottish Open. 

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Valero Texas Open ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Rickie Fowler

Season Standings: 4,422nd with $1,602,642

• Sony Open: Maverick McNealy, T24
• The American Express: Harry Hall, T24
• Farmers Insurance Open: Adam Scott, T30
• WM Phoenix Open: Jordan Spieth, missed cut
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Justin Rose, T37
• The Genesis Invitational: Cameron Young, T7
• The Cognizant Classic: Nicolai Højgaard, T6
• Arnold Palmer Invitational: Scottie Scheffler, T24
• THE PLAYERS Championship: Hideki Matsuyama, T27
• Valspar Championship: Ryo Hisatsune, T30
• Houston Open: Brooks Koepka, MC

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2026 betting record via X throughout the entire season.