Home Cortes Will Do His Thing Against Mariners

Mariners vs. Yankees, 7:05 ET

It hasn't been the stretch I'm most proud of in baseball, and certainly has been the worst stretch of the season for me. There are going to be days, weeks, hell, even months like this over the course of the season. However, it hasn't been a complete massacre or bloodbath. There have been a few wins, just not as consistent as I would like. Just like when looking the Dodgers or some other really good team, you'll see they have slumps and then stretches where they look unbeatable. Same idea for sports betting, just need to weather the storm. I'm looking to avoid the rain as the Mariners take on the Yankees tonight in New York.

As I mentioned, there are stretches of a season where you question if a team is truly good, or maybe if they are actually a bad team playing well. Early in the season, when you don't have the benefit of multiple games, it can be hard to hide how poorly you might be playing. For instance, the Mariners, who have a winning record right now, looked significantly worse because they were just 4-8 to start the season. Going 4-8 over a 12 game stretch isn't usually that eye popping, but when it starts the year, it stands out. Since then, they've won essentially two out of every three games to climb over .500. This was somewhat similar to the production we received from them last season, until they went nuclear after the All-Star Break and vaulted themselves into playoff contention. This team has a golden opportunity to make some noise this year with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Tonight, they look to slow the Yankees offense with Bryce Miller. The 6'2" righty takes the mound for his fifth road start. I won't say that he has been good on the road, as he currently sports a 4.03 ERA and has allowed 10 earned runs in 22.1 innings pitched. Most of that has come from his past two starts on the road where he allowed four earned runs in each game to the Orioles and Astros. Not all of his road starts have been bad as he did have a magnificent start against the Brewers, going seven scoreless innings and allowing just three hits. Yankees hitters haven't had a ton of experience against Miller but have done some damage in the limited exposure. They've gone 5-for-12 against him with three extra-base hits.

Apr 17, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners starter Bryce Miller (50) delivers a pitch first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees are arguably one of the two or three most complete teams in all of baseball this season. The Dodgers are one of them, but the Yankees are surprisingly better than expected. Last season, I expected their hitting to carry them, and it seemed like the team might think that as well. They ended up being one of the worst teams in the division due to their pitching staff. This season, they ended up trading for Juan Soto and that has already paid off. They lost Gerrit Cole to injury and I was expecting that to be the downfall, but the team has an ERA under three for the season. One of the pitchers that is contributing to that strong ERA, at least when on his home mound is tonight's starter, Nestor Cortes. This is a Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde situation for the Yankees starter. On the road, Cortes has a 6.75 ERA and at home he has a 1.27 ERA. He was able to just turn in another seven innings where he allowed no earned runs against the White Sox. Sadly, the Mariners offense isn't significantly better than the White Sox. This will be the sixth start of the season at home for Cortes, and he has already three outings where he hasn't allowed an earned run. Mariners hitters haven't been great against him with just nine hits in 41 at-bats against him. Only three of those hits have gone for extra-bases, and all of them have been doubles. 

The Yankees should win this game without too much trouble. I also think the Mariners team total under is the way to go in this game. I'd be a bit surprised if the run line doesn't hit for the Yankees as well. My favorite bet in this one though is to take the team total under for Seattle. The way that Cortes has pitched is hard to ignore and I don't really have faith in the Mariners offense. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024