This Guy Has Struggled Against Gallen Forever, Back This Player Prop

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers, 2:35 ET

I was able to grab a victory in both of the games that I took on yesterday, and that makes for a 5-1 mark since Sunday. I'm not ready to call it a hot streak yet, because there is still a long way to go, but I'm happy that we are getting some positive momentum. I need to help everyone build their bankroll for the upcoming football season - by the way, Geoff Clark and I will be recording a podcast about NFC win totals today. Let's keep getting the cash as the Diamondbacks take on the Rangers.

Arizona is under .500 and they kind of signaled that they would be willing to pack it in on the season around the trade deadline. They got rid of two of their best hitters, both going over to Seattle. They traded away one of their better pitchers because he is older and one be under contract any longer, and they just so happen to have to face him today. The thing is the Diamondbacks' offense is actually still pretty good. They have some pesky hitters who keep the offense dangerous even without the big bats that have departed. The problem this season has been the pitching staff has struggled in ways they haven't over the past few years. Zac Gallen, today's starter, is the main guy who has struggled. Gallen is 9-12 for the season with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. This will be the worst season of his career, and it really isn't that close. I originally thought that this was due to him being in his head about the trade rumors this season - they started in the offseason - and it might be the case. Since the deadline, Gallen has gone 12 innings and allowed three earned runs. The problem is he has still allowed 13 hits and three walks in that stretch as well. Rangers hitters are likely to struggle against Gallen today, as they are hitting just .215 against him over 121 at-bats. 

Aug 2, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (23) throws as during the second inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

The Rangers committed to trying to make the playoffs by being buyers at the trade deadline, but they aren't in a significantly better position than the Diamondbacks. They are third in their division (Arizona is fourth), but they are just one game above .500 and unlikely to make a run at the divisional crown. Their best hope is to make the playoffs via a Wild Card berth. As of today, they are 3.5 games back of the playoffs, still behind the Guardians, who are also chasing the Yankees. Trying to steal this game is Merrill Kelly, who came over from the Diamondbacks at the deadline. Overall, Kelly's numbers are 9-7 with a 3.38 ERA, and a 1.08 WHIP. He has only made two starts for Texas, and they haven't been outstanding. He has gone 10 innings and allowed six earned runs. One of those games was against the Phillies, a team that has hit him rather well in the past. The bigger concern to me than the runs he allowed in that game was that he issued five walks. As you might imagine, there is very little history of Diamondbacks hitters against Kelly. That does give him an edge even though the team should have a better scouting report and be more familiar with him than anyone. 

To be honest with you, I'm not sure that the best bet is on the moneyline or the total. I do have a lean to the Rangers at -150, but that's a bit higher than I like to recommend. I think the under is the right choice here, but I could also see either of these starters struggling, so I can't give that out with a ton of confidence. The play I'm making here is actually on Texas hitter, Jonah Heim to not get a hit today. He is 0-for-14 against Gallen with eight strikeouts. My biggest hope here is that he starts. Rowdy Tellez, Joc Pederson, and Josh Jung also have struggled against Gallen, so those could be other options for no hits. 

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