Guardians Will Take Down Morton And Orioles

Orioles vs. Guardians, 1:10 ET

The trade deadline used to be one of my favorite periods in baseball, but the last few years have fallen flat. What has changed? The biggest issue is that we have a number of teams that are still in the playoff race. Essentially, with the three Wild Card winners, teams that are hovering around .500 could be a good or bad week away from shifting their perspective. Not many teams are viewed as sellers, and a lot are looked at as buyers. The Orioles are most likely sellers, and they face a team that is probably neither in the Guardians. 

The Orioles are underperforming this season. After a couple of very strong years, the club has been unable to find sustained success. Is it the hitting, or is it the pitching? The answer is that it is both, but I think pitching is the bigger issue. For the season, the Orioles are 24th in runs, despite being in the top half of homers. Their batting average is 23rd in the league, but they are ahead of some competitive teams like the Giants, and just behind the Twins. The pitching is fourth worst in the league. The only teams with a higher team ERA are the Athletics, Nationals, and Rockies. Does a team really want to trade for pitching from a team that has bad pitching? Pretty unlikely, but there has been some chatter that this could be the last start in a Baltimore uniform for today's hurler, Charlie Morton. Morton is a veteran who probably doesn't have many more innings left in his career. He is throwing to a 5-8 record with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP this season. He has been very bad on the road this season, with an ERA above six. However, if we look month-to-month, his ERA was improving before ballooning in July again. Most of that was the result of his last road start against Tampa where he allowed seven earned runs in 5.1 innings. Guardians hitters are pretty good against Morton overall, going 13-for-54. 

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - MAY 14: A Baltimore Orioles hat is pictured with Franklin batting gloves during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on May 14, 2022 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

The Guardians are in that camp where you don't know what they will do, but it is more likely for them to try and add at the deadline than it is for them to sell players. I'd actually argue it is more likely for them to do nothing or minor moves than they do anything at all. The AL Central is pretty much determined already with the Tigers running away with it, so now the Guardians, the Twins, and even the Royals are fighting not only each other but the rest of the American League to find a path into the playoffs. They send out Logan Allen to the hill in hopes of getting a win today. Allen has been okay for the team, going 6-8 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. You don't see this often, but his overall ERA, home ERA, and road ERA are identical. This can be good for bettors because while he hasn't been great, he seems to be fairly consistent. For the most part, he will keep the Guardians in games, but it just depends on if they can score runs for him or not. Orioles hitters are 7-for-21 against him overall, but none have too much experience against him.

I don't really like playing over totals in the first five innings. It isn't that they can't be won, but this one today is juiced at over 4.5 and the full game is 8.5 or 9 depending where you look. You get the opportunity to add extra innings runs for a full game that you'll never get with the first five. I am looking at a first five play, however. In this one I think the edge is on the Guardians. They have the better pitcher in a better situation. I'm going to back Allen and the Guardians through five innings. 

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