It Is Gross. It Is Strange. It Is Bettable: The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

The Fourth of July is my favorite holiday every year. It is in the middle of summer, my favorite season. It typically has the best weather, because I love the hot weather. It has some of the best food because we get to grill hot dogs and hamburgers, while drinking some beers. To top all of that off, we get fireworks to end the night! What could be more American? Well, people racing to shove glizzies down their gullet in the heat during the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest in Coney Island is one of the things that screams you're American. 

There is one big name in this contest, and that is the man, the myth, the legend, Joey "Jaws" Chestnut. By the way, if you haven't watched this before, it is absolutely disgusting, but the emcee for the event is awesome. He does this… rap thing when they enter the stage. It is both silly and phenomenal all at one time, but most of all, it seems really well written. Anyway, Chestnut missed last year's contest because of some silliness about his sponsorships. Basically, he couldn't participate because he was (or maybe still is) promoting a fringe competitor of Nathan's hot dogs. This year, he is back, and he gets to defend his success that he's had in the past. He has won 16 contests since 2007. As far as I can tell, he's only lost once when he has actually competed in the contest, and that was in 2015. Over the years, Chestnut has hit 70 hot dogs or more in five of the 16 wins. However, in 2022 and 2023, he ate only 63 and 62, respectively. 

This isn't going to be a super long article. This is a bit of a silly thing to bet on in general and I love it. I'm taking Chestnut to go under 71.5 hot dogs eaten. There is almost no question that Chestnut will win this once again, but his record is 76 hot dogs. I don't see him going back up to 70 this year. I'm sure he has trained and I'm sure he can do it if he really wanted to, but I like the under here. He is the Wayne Gretzky, Tom Brady, Michael Jordan of hot dog eating, but this seems too high for this one. Back the under here at -135. 

Looking for a bonus bet? Miki Sudo is basically the female equivalent of Chestnut. She has 10 titles herself, and the only loss I can see here is in 2021, but I don't think Sudo participated this year. She is another one who will get a victory here. The question is how many dogs will she down? Her line opened at 44.5 and has been bet up to 46.5. Here last five events have seen her eat: 51, 39.5, 40, 48.5, and 31. A bit all over the board. I actually think she goes over the total, but shop around, BetMGM supposedly had a 44.5 which would be better. I don't think she hits 50 dogs again, but 47 seems possible. 

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