Green Bay Packers Are A Thanksgiving Dog With Teeth Vs. Detroit Lions In Week 13

The 2025 Thanksgiving NFL triple-banger kicks off at 1 p.m. ET with the Detroit Lions (7-4) hosting the Green Bay Packers (7-3-1). This is their second meeting this season: Green Bay beat Detroit 27-13 at home in Week 1 as -1 favorites. The then-4-6 Packers upset the then-8-2 Lions as +8 underdogs on Turkey Day 2023, so it's not like Detroit's home-field advantage is the end-all, be-all. 

Why I’m on Green Bay Packers +2.5

Available at most sportsbooks, with BetMGM having the best price (-102) as of Tuesday, 3:15 p.m. ET. 

Quarterback Edge

Green Bay QB Jordan Love’s Thanksgiving resume rocks: Undefeated on the holiday with sharp accuracy, clean sheets, and big yardage. Zoom out, and it tracks with the broader arc: Love’s efficiency has lived in the top tier this season on the fancy stuff (EPA plus completion percentage over expectation) and the mainstream stuff (QBR). 

The Green Bay Packers visit the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving 2025 in NFL Week 13. (Photo credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images)

Love creates outside structure, drives the ball downfield, and punishes single coverage. In contrast, Lions QB Jared Goff is steady and rhythm-based. However, Goff is not the same off-script creator, and that matters when protection gets noisy.

The Packers are better in the trenches 

This isn’t about "toughness"; it’s about win rates, and Green Bay is better in all four line of scrimmage metrics, per ESPN. The Packers can generate heat without sending the house, and that’s the exact Goff kryptonite. If Green Bay wins early downs, it'll get Detroit into static looks and make Goff hold it that extra fatal half-beat.

Coaching Disparity: Continuity > Brain Drain

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur remains one of the NFL's best regular-season game managers. LaFleur's body of work is proven against the spread, and Green Bay has kept its offensive/defensive language intact year over year. 

Detroit, meanwhile, has dealt with coaching turnover, losing both coordinators to head-coaching jobs this offseason, and tweaks to play-calling responsibilities. Lions head coach Dan Campbell is a culture-builder, but midseason handoffs always come with friction. On a short holiday week, give me the staff that can install with muscle memory.

Defense Travels, and Green Bay has dudes at every level

Packers All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons played against Detroit in Week 1. Yet, Parsons didn't practice much with the team because Green Bay traded for him two weeks before the season started, and he only played 45% of the defensive snaps. 

That said, Parsons is an everyday player now, and he's Pro Football Focus's second-highest graded EDGE behind the eventual NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Cleveland Browns' Myles Garrett. Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has lined up Parsons in different spots to confuse opposing quarterbacks and playcallers. 

Furthermore, Green Bay has LB Edgerrin Cooper in the middle, and S Xavier McKinney cleaning up as the secondary's quarterback. That’s a speed spine built to squeeze Detroit’s play-action and flood concepts. The Lions’ secondary has battled injuries in clusters, and Love is ruthless at finding No. 2-3 options when his first read is covered. 

Market psychology: Narrative tax on the favorite

The public wants the Lions to "get right on Turkey Day" and avenge a Week 1 loss to Green Bay. The sportsbooks know that and shade accordingly. Divisional familiarity erases a lot of home-field value, and Thanksgiving’s routine changes (short prep, early kick, odd halftime) further flatten edges. Ultimately, I'm getting a discount on the better QB-coach-defense combo.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers 30, Detroit Lions 21

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