Packers Vs. Bears, Round 3: Why Green Bay Wins Their 2025 NFC Wild Card Meeting
Come for the Packers-Bears best bet, stay for the player prop at the end.
For the third time this season, longtime rivals, the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, meet in the 2026 NFC Wild Card Round Saturday. They split the regular-season series 1-1. Green Bay won the first meeting 28-21 in Week 14. Chicago won the second, 22-16, in overtime two weeks later.
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The TL;DR version of my breakdown for why the Packers will win the trilogy is: "Green Bay is the better team, and this matchup says the Packers should handle the Bears this time around".
Here’s how I arrived at that conclusion.
Week 16 Was Fluky (And Still Nearly Went Green Bay’s Way)
The Packers were up 10 points with five minutes left in their 22-16 overtime loss at Chicago in Week 16. That game got weird early when Green Bay QB Jordan Love left with a concussion.
The Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers Saturday at Soldier Field in the 2026 NFC Wild Card. (Photo credit: Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
To Packers backup QB Malik Willis’ credit, he was fantastic and wasn’t the reason they lost. But Love changes the entire profile of Green Bay's offense, and it matters against a Bears' defense that lives on takeaways.
Love is tied for second in QBR and sixth in interception rate. Chicago has an NFL-best +22 turnover margin, but the underlying defense is far less impressive: The Bears rank 29th in yards per play allowed.
The Regular-Season Finale Was Basically a Bye Week for the Packers
Another thing working in Green Bay’s favor is how each team treated Week 18.
Chicago played its starters and was legitimately trying to win and earn the 2-seed for the NFC playoffs. Regardless, Detroit’s wide receivers were running wide-open all game. That’s not exactly a confidence booster for the Bears heading into a game against Packers head coach Matt LaFleur.
Green Bay, on the other hand, pretty much treated the regular-season finale like a bye week, resting most of its starters. That extra time matters, especially since Love is coming back to a mostly healthy WR corps and an elite playcaller.
With Love out there and the Packers close to full strength, offensively, they should light up Chicago’s soft-a** defense.
The Predictive Stat That Favors Green Bay
If you want one "tell" that travels week to week, it’s early-down performance. Entering Week 17 (not counting Week 18 since Green Bay essentially took the week off), the Packers were seventh in early-down success rate differential. The Bears? Twenty-third.
Early-down success rate is predictive because the whole playbook is available on first and second down, and that’s exactly where good offenses separate themselves from defenses that are just hoping for a giveaway.
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love and head coach Matt LaFleur form one of the best quarterback-coach combos in the NFL playoffs. (Photo credit: Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK)
The bottom line is, Green Bay has the better quarterback, the better playcaller, and the better profile in the most predictive spots. If the Packers play clean, Chicago’s defense isn’t built to hold up for four quarters.
Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -116 moneyline at FanDuel, up to -130
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Player Prop: Chicago Bears WR Rome Odunze UNDER 37.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
First of all, Odunze hasn't played since Week 13 and might not be 100% for the playoffs. Either way, he had the worst catch rate (48.9%) among Chicago pass-catchers with at least six targets; Odunze only caught 44 of his 99 targets this season.
Also, the Bears are a run-heavy team, and QB Caleb Williams has a lot of mouths to feed in that offense. Lastly, according to Pro Football Focus, Odunze lines up against Packers CB Keisean Nixon, who is their highest-graded cover corner.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.