Gray Will Dominate Former Team

Cardinals vs. Athletics, 9:40 ET

Baseball can be very difficult to bet early in the season because teams are figuring some things out, others are hot right out of the gate, and, sometimes, teams just improve more than you'd expect from one season to the next. In general, most sports betting is better if you stay away from the games for the first couple of weeks so you can get a feel for the teams. Sure, you can leave a bit of money on the table, and we've done well to start the year, but it is sound advice for the more amateur sports bettors. Tonight, we are going to lock in on an interleague game between the Cardinals and Athletics. 

The Cardinals come into this one with a 7-9 record and seemingly carrying last year's struggles into the beginning of this year. The team is hitting just .230 on the season and only has 12 more hits than their opponent on the season. They aren't getting a ton of walks, and certainly not getting many timely hits. The team collectively has an average of 3.81 runs per game. The pitching staff has done a bit better than last season as they now have a 3.92 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. I don't think that they are a great staff, but it does seem like they've improved from last season. Tonight, they get one of their bigger additions, and a former Oakland A's hurler taking the ball, Sonny Gray. Gray started the season on the injured list but made a return last week as he took on the Phillies. In that start, he went five scoreless innings and allowed just five hits, no walks, and five strikeouts. Now, he gets to face one of the worst teams in the league. He has only faced Athletic hitters 22 times in his career and has allowed six hits to them. He did face them last season and went four innings and allowed just one earned run. In his seasons with the Athletics, he was very strong at home. 

It may come as a bit of a shock (it certainly did to me) that the Athletics have already won seven games. For a bit of context, they didn't win their seventh game of the season until May 5th last year. They have an identical record to the Cardinals, but are better on the road with a 4-2 road record and a 3-7 home record. They did take two of three games from the Nationals over the weekend, one of the teams that also will be on the lower end of the win totals this year. As a team, they are hitting just .208 and have only scored 47 runs this season. They've also played very well over their past eight games. They are 6-2 over those past eight games. Maybe they are putting things together? I think it might be luck more than anything, but winning three straight series is great for a team that won very few last year, and were expected to be the worst team in baseball. Tonight, they send out Ross Stripling for his fourth start of the season. In his first three games, he has covered 18 innings and only one was a quality start. The other two games he allowed 10 total earned runs. Cardinals hitters, including Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, are hitting over .300 against Stripling. 

The Cardinals should have a chance to do a ton of damage against Stripling today. With Gray on the mound, the team should be able to take the first five innings. Stripling has shown that he can go deep into games, but he also has struggled in two of the three outings. I think our best play is to take the Cardinals run line. Gray has found his groove over the past year and in his first outing he looks like he kept it. I'll back the Cardinals through five -0.5 at -115.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024