Gray Might Not Win But Could Keep Pirates At Bay

Cardinals vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET

The NL Central has some interesting story lines this season with each team having just a little bit of excitement and intrigue. The Cubs are expected to make a postseason run, the Brewers are going to take a step back, and the Reds would be middle of the pack. To this point in the season, the teams are pretty much performing as most expected. The Cardinals are expected to turn around their disappointing last couple of seasons, and the Pirates are still going to struggle but have at least Paul Skenes to look forward to. 

The Cardinals are just 4-6 to start their season, and they are still searching for their first road victory of the year. They are hitting the ball very well to start the year with a .297 batting average and 109 hits on the season. That's almost 11 hits per game for the team. In addition, the team is also mashing the ball with 16 of those hits finding their way over the fence. The problem is that their pitching staff has been as awful as the offense has been good. St. Louis pitchers are currently throwing to a 6.18 ERA and they have a 1.39 WHIP. The team is not striking anyone out and they aren't missing many bats either with a .261 opponent batting average. This evening they are putting their best pitcher on the mound with Sonny Gray taking the hill. Gray was one of our first wins of the season when he opened against the Twins. He wasn't quite as good in the second start of the year, going six innings but allowing five earned runs. The Cardinals did win that game, though. Against the Pirates in his career, Gray has held them to a .235 batting average. 

Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes at Pirate City in Bradenton, FL. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Pirates are also off to a rough start and are sitting at 4-7 for the season. They are 2-2 at home this year, and I think there is a possibility that the team will be able to remain around .500 for the season at home at the very least. For the year, the Pirates are only hitting .207 for the year, but they only have scored 40 runs in their 11 games. The pitching staff has been better than St. Louis's but it hasn't been that much better. The Pirates pitching staff has a 4.89 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Opponents are actually hitting slightly better off of Pirates pitchers than the off of Cardinals hitters, too. Today they get the best of their starters taking the mound with Paul Skenes on the bump. Skenes was brilliant in his last start, going seven innings and allowing just three hits and one unearned run. Skenes faced the Cardinals a few times last season, and they are hitting just .214 against him. Three of those hits were for extra bases. Nolan Arenado and Alec Burleson are both 4-for-9 against him. 

The NL Central battle will likely come down to the wire and I think that both of these teams will have a hand in determining who wins it - The Pirates won't likely have a chance to win unless they make some moves, but the Cardinals pitching should improve and the hitting will level off eventually. For this specific game, I think we are likely going to see a low score for both teams, but I'm not sure I want to back the under. I actually like the Pirates under 3.5 runs total, specifically. Gray might not win the game for the Cardinals, but I do lean that way. I think the best look is the Pirates under 3.5 runs though.

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