Gray and Twins Can Clobber Royals

Royals vs. Twins, 7:40 ET

I think the Twins are out of the playoff race. It isn't official, of course, but being five games back this late in the campaign seems really difficult. It makes it even more difficult having to track down both the Guardians and the White Sox. They need to win games like today's against the Royals.

Zack Greinke has shown some sporadic greatness left in the tank for the Royals. Unfortunately for them, almost all of that has been shown during home starts. Tonight, he takes on the Twins in a road outing. He has a 6.33 road ERA having allowed 38 earned runs in 54 innings. This is the fourth time that Greinke has faced the Twins this year and the third time on the road. In his previous two outings, he had one quality start and he had a four-inning outing where he allowed five earned runs. He spent most of that quality start in trouble though allowing nine hits in six innings. The Royals have only won three road starts from Greinke all season.

Sonny Gray has revitalized his career a bit this season. He is throwing to a 3.09 ERA and has a slightly better home ERA. He has certainly tried to do his part to keep the Twins in the playoff race as he's allowed just 10 earned runs over 36.2 earned runs. In his last four home starts, he has allowed just three earned runs over 22 innings. He's coming off of a very nice outing against the Yankees and hasn't really pitched poorly in any of the last nine outings. Against Kansas City, Gray has allowed just 1 earned run over 12 innings. The Twins have won all three starts against Greinke this season as well. Even if they don't get to him, they should be able to get to the Royals bullpen.

The Twins should win this game with relative ease. Gray could hold the Royals down quite a bit in tonight's start. I think Greinke has shown that he is vulnerable on the road. I'm going to take the Twins run line at +105 for tonight's game.

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