Gore And Boyd Should Keep Offenses From Getting Too Many

Cubs vs. Nationals, 6:45 ET

I wrote yesterday about Lance McCullers Jr. and him having death threats because of a sports bettor. Geoff Clark, fellow Outkick handicapper, wrote a piece as well, and while we had a similar stance, his point was significantly better than mine. Don't blame sports betting for dumb behavior. Blame the sports bettor that chooses to do the bets. Ultimately, if you read something or see something, you still need to decide if you want to place the bet. That's called critical thinking and sadly we don't do enough of it in society. Enough about that topic, let's move on to the Cubs and Nationals.

The Cubs are one of the best teams in the National League, and if we are being honest, I didn't see it coming. The truth is this team was just mediocre last season. They floundered around and ultimately didn't even make the playoffs. There were a lot of questions as to why that happened, but the truth was, the team just wasn't that good. What did they do differently this season? Player development certainly helped. Kyle Tucker instead of Cody Bellinger seems to have made a difference, and their pitching staff, even without two of their better arms, seems to be very good. Tonight, one of those arms that is helping the club quite a bit, Matthew Boyd, takes the mound. Boyd is 5-2 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He hasn't been quite as sharp on the road, but he also hasn't been terrible with a 3.73 ERA. He has produced a quality start in three of his last four outings, but the one non-quality start was a four inning, four runs allowed road game. Nationals hitters have done okay against him, with Josh Bell the only one with a lot of success. He might be a good guy for a daily lineup today.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - APRIL 18: Kyle Tucker #30 of the Chicago Cubs triples during the seventh inning at Wrigley Field on April 18, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)

The Nationals are not one of the best teams even in their own division. Recently the Athletic did a piece on why the team really should be better than they are. The premise was that the team was rebuilding and has a lot of good young players from trades they've made over the years to restock the team. The question was about why it was taking so long. I won't share the whole piece here, but to me, development is always the hardest thing to predict - specifically in baseball. Paul Skenes was a can't miss pitcher, and so far, he hasn't missed, but injuries (I hope they don't) could derail him. There are a ton of factors and never just one or two reasons. One guy they have high hopes for is taking the mound today, MacKenzie Gore. Gore is 2-5 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Those are pretty solid numbers from a guy on a bad team. He has also pitched really well at home with a 1-3 record and a 2.64 ERA. He has posted two really strong starts in a row, going 12 innings and allowed just six hits, three walks, and one earned run. Cubs hitters race doing fine against him, hitting .265, but Kyle Tucker is the only standout going 3-for-4. 

This is a game that the Cubs probably win, but there isn't value on them. I actually like the value on the Nationals. I'm not personally playing it but the correct value side is the Nationals for the first five innings and full game. I like the under in this. I get told I play a lot of under games, which is true, but the reality is that I also pick a lot of -135 or lower moneyline games meaning the books expect them to be close games. Close games typically aren't high scoring. Back the under once again. 

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