Good Hitting + Inconsistent Pitching: Hit The Total

Blue Jays vs. Orioles, 6:35 ET

Growing up you probably played the game Sharks and Minnows if you were ever in a swimming pool. The concept is simple - some people are sharks and others are the minnows. The sharks swim around trying to catch the minnows. It is as much a representation of the circle of life as it is a game for kids to play in the water. Some people eat, and others get eaten. It feels incredibly appropriate as we hit the week of the trade deadline that we have a shark, the Blue Jays, taking on a minnow, the Orioles. 

The Blue Jays have been one of the best and hottest teams in baseball for about two months now. Did anyone really expect them to take over the AL East? I'd love to say that I did, but I was kind of off of the bandwagon by the time this team entered this year. They had disappointed me too many times, and I wasn't going to continue backing the club after they never reached their potential. This season is different, though. The team is hitting, they are pitching well enough, and now they are coming off a series in which they took three out of four from potentially the other best team in the American League, the Tigers. Today, they face a team that has significantly underperformed this season, the Orioles. To battle them, they send out Chris Bassitt. As usual, Bassitt has flown a bit under the radar. His numbers put him as a top-40 pitcher in the league, which would mean he is not quite an Ace, but a strong secondary starter. I'd probably list him as a third starter more than a first or second. Ultimately, he is a reliable arm that has done good work all year. He has an 11-4 record, 3.88 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP. He has been worse on the road then he has been at home - throwing to an ERA that is three runs higher on the road than at home. They haven't been all terrible starts on the road, he has allowed four or more earned in six of his 10 appearances though. He faced the Orioles once this season, on his home turf, and went six innings, allowing just one earned run. 

Jul 25, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA;  Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer (4) and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) congratulate each other after scoring in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Orioles are going to sell players. I feel like this was the feeling from the franchise before the season even began. Most of the conversation that I remember reading about the organization the past two seasons was that they were going to have to get rid of the majority of their talent because the ownership simply didn't want to pay them. I suppose, to a certain extent, that makes sense. Baltimore isn't a big market, but if you field a winner, people show up. Sometimes it feels like these teams just purposefully shoot themselves in the foot. This is part of the reason I don't like revenue sharing. Anyway, today's starter might be making his last start for Baltimore today as Zach Eflin takes the hill. Eflin doesn't really have much positives you can take away from his overall numbers at 6-5 for the season, a 5.78 ERA, and a 1.37 WHIP. He was acquired last season in a trade from the Rays and did very well for Baltimore, but this year has been a struggle. Injuries and inconsistencies have made Eflin struggle this season. He did face Toronto once this year, allowing two earned in six innings.

At this point in the season it can be a big challenge betting on certain teams. The Orioles have a legitimate shot to win the game, but do you want to back a team that is potentially going to have players traded during the contest? Instead of playing the side, I'm going to take the over for the game. I think both pitchers probably allow some runs here, and the bullpens for both are questionable. The over is the right look in this game. 

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