Gonzaga Won't Be Beaten A Third Time

Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's, 9:00 ET

I feel like I am getting a bit of deja vu here as I have written not too long ago about this exact matchup. However, that one had a lot less on the line than this one. I have to think the both of these teams will make the NCAA Tournament, no matter what happens in the game tonight, but winning the West Coast Conference Championship does assure one of them that they will be in the Big Dance. That's what is on the line for tonight as Gonzaga takes on St. Mary's for the conference championship.

Gonzaga started the season as one a ranked team, and there was no time for easing into the season as they had to face Baylor almost immediately. It wasn't a bad thing for the Bulldogs as they made light work of the Bears. We actually started our winning ways this season on that game and were happy to pocket some coin with the outcome. Since then, Gonzaga has put together a campaign of 24-8 for the season. They also went 14-4 in the conference, but that wasn't enough to win the regular season. For the year, Gonzaga has faced some tough teams, but they've also lost a few head-scratchers. Their eight losses this season were to West Virginia and Kentucky in overtime, UConn, and UCLA, all four of those games coming on a neutral court. The other four losses were on the road against Oregon State, at home against Santa Clara, and then losing both on the road and at home to Saint Mary's. Although a lot of the games were close, they ultimately couldn't escape with a win. 

SPOKANE, WASHINGTON - FEBRUARY 20: A basketball sets on the court next to the Bulldogs logo prior to the start of the game between the San Francisco Dons and the Gonzaga Bulldogs at McCarthey Athletic Center on February 20, 2020 in Spokane, Washington. (Photo by William Mancebo/Getty Images)

St. Mary's has put together a fantastic season and they are currently ranked 19th in the nation. The reality is that I would be pretty surprised to see them (or Gonzaga) make it to the Sweet 16. St. Mary's for the year is 28-4, but their level of competition hasn't been quite the same as what I've seen from Gonzaga. The losses have come against Arizona State, Boise State, and Utah State outside of conference games. None of those three teams are juggernauts. And, although two of those three games were on neutral courts, I still don't think they should be losing to them if we want to consider them a top tier team. To their credit, the combined margin of defeat was 13 points over those three games. They were dominant in conference games this year however, going 17-1 with their only loss coming by one point at San Francisco. 

In the two matchups against Gonzaga, St. Mary's won both, winning by four in the first game at home, then winning by seven in the second on the road. In the first game, Gonzaga's three point shooting was atrocious. Neither team was good from the free throw line so not much of a distinction can be made there. In the second game, Gonzaga also shot poorly from three, but 28.6% was better than the first game. It is hard to beat a team three times in a row. While I don't see Gonzaga shooting significantly better from deep than they did in the first two games, I think on the neutral court, Saint Mary's might shoot worse. They are getting a lot of their points from there. It also should be noted, though, that the rebounding battle has been won by Saint Mary's in both games. There is a reason, though, that Gonzaga is the favorite here. I think they will beat Saint Mary's and I think they cover the -3.5 spread. I think this is a game where Gonzaga wins by 7+ or Saint Mary's wins outright. But I'm taking Gonzaga -3.5.