Gilbert Is Great, But Total Is Too Low

Rangers vs. Mariners, 10:10 ET

I had one game, but two plays yesterday. The over cashed in a hurry as the teams scored a flurry of runs and then nothing the rest of the game. The side, unfortunately, did not hit as I was only able to get half of the bet. It is fine as it basically resulted in a wash. Deadline day, though, has come and gone. It was a little more exciting than I was expecting. I was pumped, then kind of bored, then pumped again as the names were sent flying. Two teams that looked to improve face off today as the Rangers take on the new look Mariners.

The Rangers are above .500 again, and look like they are going to make that run they have needed all season. I think I've mentioned this about the Braves, Red Sox, and Rangers - I said all of them seemed incapable of a sustained winning streak. All three went on a sustained winning streak shortly after writing that. I suppose it is just that type of season for me where teams want to prove a small-time writer from Outkick wrong. The problem for the Rangers remains when they leave Texas. They are just 23-33 for the season in road games. Now they face a very rejuvenated Seattle team. Today, the task falls on the right arm of Jack Leiter to figure out the lineup. Leiter is 7-6 for the season with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Leiter has been worse on the road by about a full run. He also has allowed 15 hits and seven earned runs to the Mariners in 10.1 innings this season. In fairness to him, one game he allowed six earned in 4.1 innings, the other he allowed one earned in six innings, so it isn't as if he has been bad in both starts. He has put up back-to-back quality starts in July and allowed eight runs over 21 innings. 

Jun 5, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Texas Rangers pitcher Jack Leiter (35) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the second inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dave Nelson-Imagn Images

This Mariners team is going for it. After last season where their team was a disaster of a lineup, they did what they could to bolster it by adding Randy Arozarena at the deadline. This year, they added a ton of bats to try and make it even deeper. The team was already stacked with pitching, but dealt with some issues due to injuries. Now they are healthy, and just 4.5 games behind the Astros who also made some strong moves to secure their place in the lineup. The one thing that is a bit unclear in this game is who will be ready to suit up for the Mariners. It isn't like they need to learn a huge playbook, so they may be fine to play as long as they are available. Logan Gilbert goes for the Mariners, and he has been strong overall. Gilbert is 3-4 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He has been phenomenal at home, allowing just nine earned runs in 41.2 innings. He has faced Texas twice this season and allowed five earned runs in 10.1 innings. Only one of those games was at home and he allowed one earned in five innings in that one. 

This is a matchup that probably favors the Mariners. The books think so to putting a -175 line on the game. I imagine the house should be rocking with excitement around the new players that Seattle has added. I think the total is just too low in this game. 7.5 is typically reserved for great pitchers - which Gilbert is great, but I'm not so sure about Leiter. I also think Texas can get a couple off of him. Back the over for this one.

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