Gibbs Should Get More Opportunity In This One

Lions vs. Vikings, 4:30 ET

Merry Christmas to all of you out there, and for those who don't celebrate, enjoy the day off. Christmas is a time to show loved ones how much you love them by giving them stuff. I'm showing all of you how much I love you guys by putting out four plays for you to evaluate on your own and decide if you want to fade or follow. I won't take it personally either way. I have two NBA Plays for you today, and two NFL looks. This look is between the Lions and the Vikings in an afternoon game in Minnesota.

It is amazing how different a year can be. Detroit, last season, was injured but looked like they might be one of the best teams in the league. Ben Johnson, their offensive coordinator, heads to Chicago, and the offense didn't take a huge step back, but the play calling can certainly be questioned at times. This year, the Lions are just 8-7, still alive in the playoff hunt, but a loss here knocks them out. If they want to blame anything for their losses this season, it has to be the result in one-score games. They lost to the Packers to start the year, but that was a two-score game. Their next loss was also a two-score loss, dropping the game to the Chiefs. At the Bye Week, they were 5-2, but have gone just 3-5 since that week, losing all five games by seven or fewer points. They lost a home game to the Vikings by three, in probably their most questionable loss of the season. They dropped a game to the Eagles 16-9, and then fell again to the Packers by seven. In the last two weeks, they've lost to the Rams and the Steelers, both by seven or fewer points. Jared Goff would be an MVP candidate if it wasn't for the Lions record.

ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 14: J.J. McCarthy #9 of the Minnesota Vikings warms up before kickoff against the Dallas Cowboys during an NFL football game at AT&T Stadium on December 14, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

The Vikings are having a tough season themselves. They ended up passing on Sam Darnold to give JJ McCarthy a shot, and Darnold could have the #1 seed in the playoffs while the Vikings are already out of it. The only thing that Minnesota has left to play for is the role of spoiler. I suppose they could be playing to win both this game and the next in order to have an above .500 season, but that would mean very little. The Vikings have been good over their last three games, beating the Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants. The problem is, only the Cowboys are healthy out of that group. Their only two wins this season over teams with playoff potential are against the Bears and the Lions. They still have a solid defense, but their offense just doesn't seem to get consistent enough to win them games. Most of the success is against the Vikings on the ground, which plays well into the Lions hands with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. 

For today's game, rather than take on the spread or total, which both have moved significantly, I think a player prop is the right angle. For the spread, I think the Vikings cover as I just think we are talking about too many points as a divisional home dog with a team that has been competitive all year. The total should go over as well as I don't like Detroit's defense, but their offense can score on anyone. The player prop here is to take Gibbs over 74.5 yards. That's only two more yards than his season average. Now, in full transparency, Gibbs had just 25 yards on nine carries against them in the first game. That's part of why I like him here. I know the Vikings will plan to stop him, but I don't think the Gibbs go away from him this time. He has hit the over in three of five games against the Vikings. Give me Gibbs over 74.5 rushing yards. 

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