Giants Should Be Favored With Ray On The Mound

Mets vs. Giants, 9:45 ET

We are about a week into the season, and teams are either starting their third series or wrapping up their second one of the year. This is obviously a very small amount of games in the season, and most teams you’d never notice the success or failure in the middle of the year. With just a few games this season, it is easier to see. Neither one of these teams look bad or great, but it is far too early to make judgments. The only judgment to make today is whether we get a win or a loss as the Mets take on the Giants.

The new-look Mets handed me the first loss of the MLB season. I like a lot of the moves they made in the offseason. They lost their heartbeat/leader, Pete Alonso, but they added Bo Bichette to at least balance some of the offensive firepower. They added Luis Robert Jr., who looks amazing, to start this season. Juan Soto also seems to be settling into the season very well. I still think their pitching staff will be the downfall of the club, but they seem okay to start the year. David Peterson had a nice first start to the year, going 5.1 innings and allowing no earned runs on six hits. Looking at his splits from last season, he was pretty much the same on the road as he was at home. He faced the Giants twice, allowing three earned runs over 12 innings. I still think he allows too many base runners, as he gave up 12 hits and five walks in the 12 innings. Overall, the Giants are 19-for-75 against him, but have never hit a homer off of him.

Jul 4, 2025; New York City, New York, USA;  New York Mets right fielder Juan Soto (22) hits a two run home run in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The Giants didn’t do a ton of things this offseason to make their team better, but they have a good offense. I like Willy Adames, Rafael Devers, and Matt Chapman. I think they have a chance to at least be a .500 club, and if things go well, they could be a Wild Card team. They got off to a terrible start to the season, being swept by the Yankees and scoring just one run in three games. The next two games were wins over the Padres, though, so maybe they just needed to leave San Francisco. Now they are back at their home park, and they get Robbie Ray on the hill. Ray is a former Cy Young winner who came back for them last season. He is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA and a 0.94 walk after one start. He allowed two earned runs on five hits in 5.1 innings against the Yankees in his first outing. Mets hitters haven’t been great against Ray, going 15-for-82 with no one on the team having more than three hits against him. 

The Mets hitters have also struck out about once every four at-bats against Ray. That’s a decent look if you want to go for a strikeout play on Ray. The Mets get one of their better, but still fairly average, hurlers taking the hill. I'm actually a bit surprised that the Mets are favored here. I suppose it is due to them having a better lineup overall. Perhaps it is because they are a public team. In my opinion, this is a line the books have wrong, and I'll gladly take the Giants at home to win this one at +104. 

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