Giants–Patriots MNF Betting Preview: Why New York Can Cover +7.5 And Shock New England

Even though the New York Giants (2-10) are already mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, their Week 13 Monday Night Football meeting with the first-place New England Patriots (10-2) still feels like a big game. The New York-Boston sports rivalry is enough to bring in viewers, and the NYG beat New England in their last two Super Bowl meetings. 

In place of Eli Manning vs. Tom Brady, we have a showdown between two young first-round quarterbacks, who look like future stars: New England QB Drake Maye, the second-betting favorite to win the NFL MVP, facing Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart, the second-betting favorite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Maye is third in the NFL in QBR and first in completion rate. More importantly, the Patriots have a two-game cushion on the Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East entering Monday. New England beat Buffalo in their first meeting this year. The Patriots have won 10 straight, including victories over the Carolina Panthers, Bills, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

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Dart returns Monday after missing the last two games with a concussion. Since their season is lost and they have a bye next week, the nerds in the NFL and sports betting media were pushing for NYG to give Dart Monday off. But screw that. It's Giants-Patriots on Monday Night Football, the NYG front office's jobs are on the line, and they need Dart. And frankly, so do the Giants' fanbase. 

New York Giants at New England Patriots Betting Odds (FanDuel) 

• Moneyline: NYG (+300) | New England (-375)
• Spread: GIANTS +7.5 (-120) | Patriots -7.5 (+100)
• Total — 46.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

The biggest pro-Giants factor in this game is their pass rush vs. New England's banged-up offensive line. Patriots LT Will Campbell and LG Jared Wilson are out Monday, and C Garrett Bradbury is questionable with an illness. Maye had the fourth-worst sack rate through Week 12, and he's taken the second-most sacks despite playing a cupcake schedule. 

Furthermore, NYG's defense is a joke, but they still have talented pass rushers, such as No. 3 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft Abdul Carter, All-Pro DT Dexter Lawrence, and Pro Bowl DE Brian Burns. The Giants should get a couple of drive-killing sacks on Maye, which would make it tough for the Patriots to win by more than a touchdown. 

Also, the Giants are in F*ck-It Mode, throwing flea flickers and touchdown passes to quarterbacks and going for it on fourth down instead of kicking field goals. That's the type of playcalling I want if I'm backing a +7 or higher underdog. The interim coaching staff knows they are gone at the end of the season unless Dart wins rookie of the year, and the team shows a pulse. 

Lastly, NYG is much better than its 2-10 overall record indicates. The Giants are 7-5 against the spread with three straight covers vs. the three best NFC North teams from Weeks 10-12. NYG held a fourth-quarter lead in all of those games. Believe it or not, there is a world where the Giants have a winning record vs. the second-toughest schedule in the NFL. 

Prediction: New York Giants 24, New England Patriots 20 

• My plan for attack is to bet 1.2 units (u) on the Giants +7.5 (-120) at FanDuel and to risk another 0.5u on NYG's +300 moneyline. My fair price is "Giants +5.5".

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