Get Ready For Runs In Rockies Vs. Brewers

Rockies vs. Brewers, 8:10 ET

With football coming back shortly, there may be fewer picks in MLB games. Yesterday, I only put out one game and was able to get some cash. With most of this season, I have seen a lot of 1-1 days so I am hoping that I can get the one win on days with just one play. Today I'm setting my sights on a game with one playoff hopeful, the Brewers, taking on a team that is essentially eliminated already, the Rockies.

The Rockies are bad on the road. Like, really bad. This season, they are currently 24 games under .500, and on the road, they are 19 games under .500. This is a growing trend for years, which is strange because teams always have players changing and rosters turning over. Baseball does have longer contracts, but still, this has been going on for seasons now. That helps us as bettors because we know we can fade them on the road and trust them a bit more at home. Just keep in mind, the Rockies have won games on the road, so finding those opportunities allows us to make quite a bit of money if we can identify them correctly. Kyle Freeland takes the ball for the Rockies tonight against the Brewers. He has had a pretty average season for him thus far. He has struggled on the road with a 5.33 ERA which is almost a full run higher than he has performed at Coors Field. He has only had a few really poor performances on the road this season, but the Rockies are 1-8 in Freeland starts this season. He has had a ton of success against the Brewers in the past though, holding them to four hits in 55 at-bats.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 29: Devin Williams #38 and Victor Caratini #7 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrate after defeating the New York Mets at Citi Field on June 29, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

The Brewers are in first place within their division, but it is not a comfortable lead by any means. For example, they have the Reds just 1.5 games back, and the Cubs 2.5 games back right now. They were able to clobber the Rockies last night and the Cubs lost last night so that helped, but the Reds maintained the pace. I think there is a lot to be said for the Brewers this season. They don't have a good offense whatsoever, and their pitching hasn't been quite as crisp, but they are eight games over .500 so that's all that matters. Winning is all that matters in all sports, and they are taking care of that. Tonight, they have Wade Miley looking to add to the win total for the squad. Miley carries a 6-2 record with a 3.01 ERA for the season. He just recently returned from the injured list and produced a solid four innings with just one earned run allowed. He hasn't gone super deep into any game this season, but he has scattered some six inning starts among four and five inning ones. His ERA is higher at home this season, and the Rockies have been successful against him in the past.

I do actually think the Rockies have a chance to win this game or at least win through the first five innings. I don't know that I'll get to the window with it, but this is mostly the value we are getting. I just don't agree with the line on the game. I think Brewers -150/160 is a more fair line. Either way, I think we are going to get an over here. The Brewers exploded for 12 runs last night and I usually like to fade teams after abnormal offensive explosions. I'll back the over here as I think both starters will allow runs.

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