Get In And Out With Christmas Day Finale

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets, 10:30 ET

For the finale of the Christmas Day games, we probably have our best of the games. I liked most of the matchups for today, but we were in one of those great moments where we had to balance a bit of the NBA with a bit of the NFL. I had some concerns about who would be available for the Mavericks/Warriors game, and then also the Rockets vs. Lakers, so I decided to skip both of those. Unfortunately, the hardest game to pick is the Spurs vs. Thunder. This game between the Timberwolves and Nuggets has a clear play, and it will be a great way to cap our Christmas.

The Timberwolves are off to a solid start, but really haven't taken much of a step forward or backward from last year. We probably know what this team is - they will be a playoff team, battling for home court advantage for more than one round, and likely will be bounced from the playoffs in the second round, but potentially Western Conference Finals. Anthony Edwards is one of the best players in the league, and at some point will probably be an MVP winner or at least an annual candidate. They have been hot lately, but most of their games have been at home. The biggest question for the Timberwolves will always be about trying to figure out if the Rudy Gobert trade is worth it. At his best, he changes games defensively; at the worst, he is a tall guy who doesn't rebound as well as you would hope, and can't be played late in games because his offense doesn't do enough. He is typically tormented by Nikola Jokic, so this could be a long Christmas night for them. 

Minnesota Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards dunking the ball vs. the Denver Nuggets at Target Center. (Photo Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images)

Denver once again has championship aspirations. After winning their title, the problem was that they didn't have much depth. That issue has been addressed, and the team is performing better when Jokic takes a seat on the bench. They still will only go as far as Jokic and Jamal Murray carry them. The Nuggets usually have a team that dominates at home, but this season, even though in only 14 games, they are just 9-5. There are a number of reasons this could be the case - travel, injuries, teams faced, and even rest disadvantages. Typically, where you see the advantage is in the first quarter, and they are 9-4-1 for the season against the spread. The Nuggets have dealt with some injuries as well and will be without both Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon, both key pieces. They have been out for over a month, so it is nothing new for the Nuggets, and they've battled that storm.

To me, the obvious play here is to take the Nuggets in the 1st quarter. I don't love that they had to travel on the 23rd, but the team will be at home for Christmas, and the Timberwolves will be on the road. Minnesota is just 6-7 (teenagers, go nuts) in the first quarter against the spread. I also think Christmas games are typically harder for the road teams because of having Christmas Eve and then traveling. Now, you combine that with the altitude adjustment of being in Denver. I also like Jokic to get a triple-double in this one. He has averaged over 50 PRA in his last 10 games against Gobert. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024