Gallen Will Get Back On Track Against Struggling Reds

Diamondbacks vs. Reds, 6:40 ET

We ended up with a decent night last night as we went 1-0 in the two plays. Yes, I opened an article yesterday saying I published four articles over the weekend and went 2-1. Just like last night, I published two articles and went 1-0. Yesterday, I took the Padres to beat the Cubs through five innings on the moneyline. There were no runs scored through five innings and that gave us a no action bet, so technically I went 1-0-1. Either way, it was a nice enough day. Today we are going to look at another NL West vs. NL Central team as the Diamondbacks face the Reds. 

Arizona is not looking like that team that found a way to make the World Series last year. Is the team tired? Are they just off to a slower start? Are they going to end up under .500 this season and on the outside of the playoffs looking in? There are a lot of questions surrounding the team right now. Their offense has been strong this season with almost 300 hits as a club, and a .249 batting average. Obviously they will need to keep this going all season, but they will need to get an adjustment from the pitching staff in order to get back on track. For the season, the team has a 4.41 ERA and is allowing opponents to hit .255 off of them. Hard to win games like that. Today they get their Ace, Zac Gallen, throwing for them once again. If anyone on the squad can post zeros on the scoreboard, it is Gallen. He has struggled a bit in his past two starts, allowing eight earned over 10 innings. It isn't much of a surprise that he gave up four total home runs in those two games. He had only allowed four runs in his previous four starts and no homers in that stretch. The Reds have only seen Gallen a little bit, but have hit .231 off of him in 13 at-bats. The question in this one is if Gallen can get back on track. Something is clearly off in these past two starts. 

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - APRIL 17: Elly De La Cruz #44 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates his home run against the Seattle Mariners during the second inning at T-Mobile Park on April 17, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

The Reds were a bit of a feel-good story last season, but this year the expectations were placed on them that they could be a relevant squad and playoff contender. At this point in the season they are hovering around .500, and they don't really have any signs that would indicate that they are going to be able to fulfill those expectations. Most of their struggles have come lately as they've lost five straight, and eight of their past ten games. Elly De La Cruz is having a strong second season and looking like he is a superstar in the making. The Reds lineup is hitting just .210 as a team and has an On Base Percentage under .300. The offense is a big issue. The pitching staff has been decent overall with a 4.00 ERA overall with a 1.26 WHIP. They are holding opponents to a .237 batting average, so that's a decent clip. Looking to get them back on track today is right-hander Frankie Montas. So far, Montas has made just five starts. He missed some time due to a forearm strain, one that happened and he was removed after just two outs in his last game. On the season, he has allowed nine earned runs over 19.1 innings. He has issued 10 walks and struck out 14 hitters, so he will need to improve his control. 

I think this is a game that is completely mispriced. Gallen is one of the better pitchers in the game and against a bad offense he should be able to get back on track. To make matters worse, the Reds are playing very poorly right now. Montas can pitch fairly well, but coming off of injury, and having a bad start prior to that, I'm not expecting him to be in great form. It is about as high of a line as I'll take, but I'm backing the Diamondbacks through five at -135. I am also going to sprinkle the double result of the D'backs moneyline through five and full game at +135.

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