Gallen, Kikuchi Will Have Advantage Over Lineups

Diamondbacks vs. Angels, 9:38 ET

I can tell you that I won't be betting on Paul Skenes strikeout props any longer this year. I've only done it a couple times and I've been burned badly on the prop in both games. Yesterday was one of those eyebrow raisers. Skenes ended his day with six strikeouts, and only allowed two earned runs. He only pitched five innings, and he had only thrown 78 pitches. Oddly enough, three of his last four games have seen him throw exactly 78 pitches, he still had 10 strikeouts in one of them. I ended up winning a couple of other bets and losing another one, so it wasn't a good day or bad day. Let's see if we can get a good day here as the Diamondbacks take on the Angels.

The Diamondbacks are once again under .500. It was only about a week ago that they once again looked like they were going to fight for a spot in the postseason this year. They haven't rolled over and died or anything, but this is arguably the most loaded division in baseball and being under .500 at the All-Star Break is not ideal for the squad. They will be facing some rather significant questions coming up. If they want to retool or tinker with the team, that's understandable. If they want to stay put and figure out if they can improve on the pitching issues this year, that's probably fine as well. One guy who is costing himself some money and probably pitching poorly because of the looming questions about his future is today's starter, Zac Gallen. This is a starter who has been relevant in the Cy Young conversation at times, but he has a 7-9 record with a 5.15 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. One of the biggest issues is that he has allowed 20 homers this season. He has been very susceptible to big innings, which is not what we've seen from him over the years. He has pitched very well in July, both starts were quality starts, and he has allowed just one earned run. He has a very good track record against the Angels, holding their hitters to just 12 hits in 61 at-bats.

Arizona D-Backs RHP Zac Gallen delivers during the 1st inning vs. the Brewers during Game 2 of the 2023 NL Wild Card Series at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (John Fisher/Getty Images)

The Angels have done better than expected, but the difference is they weren't expected to be very good. This team is also below .500, but instead of being 10-20 games under, they are only two games under. That's improvement, despite it not being anything to get overly excited about. Does that mean the team will add people at the deadline? Seems pretty unlikely, but they could potentially be a team to look for as a dark horse in the trade negotiations. They still have a generational talent, although injuries have derailed his career a bit in Mike Trout, so getting him into the playoffs again should be a goal. One guy that would probably be of interest for some teams if the Angels go the other way is Yusei Kikuchi. For the year, he is 3-6, but he has a 3.02 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The WHIP does concern me as it seems like he is allowing too much traffic on the bases, and, at least for now, getting away with it. He has been great at home this year, allowing just 10 earned runs in 53.1 innings. Diamondbacks hitters have been pretty good against him, going 18-for-74. 

If you're looking for a winner in this game, I probably prefer the Diamondbacks as I trust their offense a bit and think Gallen might finally be getting his act together. However, Kikuchi has been money at home, and one of the better pitchers. Instead of taking a firm stand on a side, I'm playing the total, and taking the under. Both pitchers could have the advantage over the opponents in this one and runs should be limited.

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