Fried Will Hold Down Surging Blue Jays Offense

Yankees at Blue Jays, 3:07 ET

One play yesterday, one loss. The good news for me is that the calendar has changed to July from June. June wasn't a great month. We had a really good week, but aside from that, it was pretty average with a lot of 1-1 days. We still have a long season to go, considering the teams are only about halfway through the year. Both teams in this game are at 84 games for the season, so just barely crossing the 50% mark. Today brings a game between the Yankees and the Blue Jays for the AL East. 

The Yankees are still in first place, but it is a bit more in jeopardy than it has been this season. I suppose there was a bit of regression to be expected as the team still has some room for improvement overall. The hitting has slowed down, and even though Aaron Judge is still putting up insane numbers. Judge is hitting .354 for the season, now. At the beginning of June he was almost batting .400. The team overall is still hitting .252, which is very good. Don't get it twisted, either - I am not blaming Judge for other teams getting closer to the Yankees. He is just the one who stands out both good and bad. The pitching has been solid for the season with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, but no one on the team has been better than today's starter Max Fried. Fried comes into the game with a 10-2 record, 1.92 ERA, and a 0.94 WHIP. Fried had another great June as he produced five quality starts, including three seven-inning outings, and just seven earned runs allowed in the month. For the year, Fried has exactly one bad start, and it was on the road against the Dodgers. He faced the Blue Jays once this year and allowed just one unearned run on five hits over six innings. 

HOUSTON, TEXAS - APRIL 21: Kevin Gausman #34 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on April 21, 2025 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

The Blue Jays seem like they are finally getting it all to click, and I couldn't be happier for them. Toronto is in third place, but they are just two games back of the Yankees. They are eight games over .500 and ten games over .500 on their home diamond. The team is one of the better hitting squads in baseball with a .257 batting average. They don't rely on the longball to score the majority of their runs as they have just 83 for the season. Unlike the Yankees who are led by Judge in all major categories, the Blue Jays have someone different leading the way for each of their big statistics. That's a good balance and something that is a little more sustainable when someone goes into a slump. Today they send out their Ace, Kevin Gausman, to the hill. Gausman is 6-6 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. While those numbers aren't terrible, he has been a lot less consistent than Fried has this year. Guasman has three games where he has allowed at least six earned and another two where he has allowed at least four earned. He has been slightly worse at home this season than he has on the road. One of those poor starts was against Fried and the Yankees as he allowed six earned runs in just 2.2 innings of work. 

I took the under the first time these two teams matched up, and I do lean toward the under again here even though it was well over in the first matchup. I don't think that Gausman is going to be great this game, but he shouldn't give up six earned runs. I kind of like the over 2.5 earned runs allowed for Gausman at -120. For this one, I'm going to take the Blue Jays under 3.5 runs in this one. Fried might not allow any runs to Toronto, and the bullpen could hold them pretty well, also. Back the Blue Jays under 3.5. 

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