Friday Looks For The NCAA Tournament

Friday NCAA Plays

Yesterday, I gave out a couple of different plays in two articles. Today, I am going to change that up a bit and give out a few plays in one article. Sometimes it is easier for everyone if I just write a small amount about a few games rather than go into greater detail about each game. After today, only 32 teams will remain, and after this weekend, just 16. This move so fast, and in the echo of Ferris Bueller, you need to slow down and look around to make sure you enjoy it. I covered a few of these on the Outkick Bets Podcast, but here are my plays for Friday in the NCAA Tournament for March Madness.

Iowa -2 vs. Clemson, 6:50 ET

If you're looking at this game from a perspective of which team is in better form, it is almost certainly the other side. Iowa was 18-5 on February 8th. Since that point, they went 3-7 in the last 10 games. They did win one of the games in the Big 10, beating Maryland by 11 points. In their second game, they lost by three to Ohio State. In the ACC Tournament, Clemson won two games before dropping a game to Duke. They were at least pretty competitive against the Blue Devils, losing by 12. These are fairly evenly matched clubs, but I prefer Iowa because I think they move the ball better, and I think they are better scoring at all levels. Give me Iowa at -2, playable to -3.5. 

Texas Tech -7.5 vs. Akron, 12:40 ET

I have this game in the category of, "What the hell are we doing here?" Are we really thinking the Akron Zips are a good team? I personally am shocked at how many people are dismissing the Red Raiders just because JT Toppin is out. He's been out for games, Texas Tech knew he wouldn't be coming back. Yes, they've lost their past three games. However, they also won three games without him. They beat Kansas State, Cincinnati, and Iowa State on the road. This is not as big of a challenge as that. Give me the Red Raiders -7.5. Akron played in the MAC and wouldn't even be considered for the tournament if they didn't win their Conference Tournament. 

Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

Purdue vs. Queens University under 163.5, 7:35 ET 

Purdue can certainly score with the best of them, but the problem will be Queens is not exactly an offensive juggernaut. I expect the Boilermakers to bring a tough defense. There is also a tendency with many teams to get up big and then not really try hard any longer. That can lead to an over, but I don't think the lack of effort will come on defense, I think it will be reflected in taking some worse shots, working the ball around to milk the clock, and then finally scoring. I like this game to go under. Purdue is also 340th in possessions per game. Queens is 63rd, but I think Purdue controls the pace in this one.

Kentucky vs. Santa Clara under 160.5, 12:15 ET

I can't say this is my favorite game of the day, but I do think this one also goes under. Kentucky only averages 80.8 points per game, and they allow 73.8 points per game. Santa Clara scores about 83 and allows roughly 72 a game. If we try and reverse average that a bit, we get Kentucky 76, Santa Clara 78. Combine those numbers and they are under 160. That's a simple way to do it, but both play with about 71 possessions per game. Both play slightly slower on the road as well. Back under 160.5

After getting knocked out of the NCAA Tournament by Gonzaga, Bill Self revealed that he has had his mind on next season for a month. (Getty Images)

Kansas vs. Cal Baptist over 138.5, 9:45 ET

This is one we might be a bit too late to the party on. The lines opened at 133.5 and -9.5. Kansas has moved to a -14.5 favorite, and the total is at 138.5. They should be able to get to about their average of 75 points as I think they are much better than the competition Cal Baptist has faced this season. Cal doesn't really move the ball all that well, but should get to 60-65 points in this game. 70-65 is what I have as a floor for both teams. There are a lot of paths to the over, even after getting a worse number. Give me over 138.5.

Missouri moneyline vs. Miami, 10:10 ET

I'm going to keep this really short and sweet. Miami is probably a better team. However, Missouri is playing this game at the Enterprise Center in… St. Louis, Missouri. This is basically a home game for the Tigers, and they aren't a bad squad. Give me them to win this one. 

There you have it. Let the March Madness begin. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024