Four NBA Best Bets Monday To Start The Week Off Right
I ramp up the gambling during the holidays, especially in the NBA. There's a ton of sports to bet on this weekend I want to play with "house money" instead of climbing out of a hole.
Speaking of which, I'm hovering around the even-mark of my NBA betting season. I've been in the red since mid-November but could get into the black by sweeping all four ...
NBA Best Bets for Monday
OVER 225.5 in Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 p.m. ET
Chicago wing Zach LaVine is hurt. The Bulls pass the ball more without LaVine on the floor and they get better looks. This season, Chicago's shot quality ranks 19th, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). But, since LaVine has been out, the Bulls are 9th in shot quality.
Furthermore, LaVine's absence has allowed Bulls combo guard Coby White to flourish. White is averaging 26.1 points on 49.6% shooting (50.7% from deep) in the seven games LaVine has been out.
Thanks to reigning NBA MVP, Joel Embiid, the Sixers can get to the charity stripe with ease. They lead the NBA in offensive FT/FGA rate and Chicago is 25th in defensive FT/FGA rate.
Sixers combo guard Tyrese Maxey shoots the ball over Chicago Bulls SG Coby White at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
As I was digging into this game, Embiid showed up on Philly's injury report as "questionable". That caused this total to drop from 227.5 to 225. Although, Embiid's possible absence Monday could force the Sixers to speed up the tempo, which helps my Over look.
Philadelphia likes to get out in transition and averages the 3rd-most fastbreak points per game (PPG). The Bulls are 26th in fastbreak defensive efficiency, according to CTG, but 10th offensively.
Also, the three referees assigned to this game have a combined 27-15 Over/Under (O/U) record this season. The crew chief for Bulls-76ers, James Capers, has a 7-3 O/U record.
Lastly, the Sixers are 8-1-1 O/U in the last 10 games and they average 125.1 PPG. Whereas Chicago is 7-4 O/U as road underdogs with a +6.6 O/U margin and it allows 118.2 PPG in away games.
My prediction: 76ers 122, Bulls 113
Detroit Pistons (+12) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is anti-Hawks bet more than a pro-Pistons bet, obviously. Detroit enters this game on a 23-game losing skid, which seems impossible in today's NBA. However, Atlanta is 2-4 straight up (SU) and 0-6 against the spread (ATS) as home favorites this season.
Hawks big Clint Capela and combo guard Bogdan Bogdanovic are "questionable" for Monday and both missed Atlanta's last game Saturday. Bogdanovic has the highest on/off net rating on the Hawks, per CTG, and Capela is the anchor of Atlanta's terrible defense.
Pistons PG Cade Cunningham attacks the paint with Atlanta Hawks wing De'Andre Hunter playing defense at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. (Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports)
The Hawks beat the Pistons 126-120 in their 1st meeting on the road earlier this season. Atlanta barely covered as -5 favorites and it was the 9th of Detroit's current 23-game losing streak.
As "square" as it sounds, the Pistons aren't going to lose every remaining game this season. Or at least I think they won't. And, at this point, every game for Detroit is its Super Bowl until this losing streak is broken.
My prediction: Hawks 122, Pistons 117
UNDER 238 in Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET
The 1st Mavericks-Nuggets meeting had a 230-point total in November and it went over with a Denver 125-114 win. But, both teams were at full strength. This Mavs-Nuggets game has a 238-point total and Kyrie Irving is out with an injury.
Over the past two weeks, Denver ranks 8th in non-garbage time defensive rating and 15th offensively, per CTG. The Mavericks on the other hand are 5th in defensive rating over that span and Dallas's defense improves when Kyrie is off the floor.
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic hacks Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic in an NBA-In Season Tournament game at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)
Moreover, the Nuggets are 25th in pace and should be able to control the tempo of this game. They are 3rd in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and the Mavericks are 23rd in offensive rebounding.
Plus, the 1st Mavericks-Nuggets game had a pace of 96.6 possessions per 48 minutes. The average NBA pace is 99.4. If both teams shoot a little worse from the field, this game should stay Under the total because it figures to be slow-paced.
Finally, Dallas has the 2nd-highest 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) in the NBA and Denver has a sneaky good 3-point defense. The Nuggets have the 3rd-best defensive wide-open 3PAr rate in the NBA. "Wide-open" is when a 3-point shooter has at least six feet of separation from the nearest defender.
My prediction: Nuggets 119, Mavericks 114
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder (-9.5), 9 p.m. ET
I'm not sure how "locked in" the Grizzlies will be Monday. Ja Morant's 25-game suspension ends after this game and they play at the New Orleans Pelicans in a NBA on TNT doubleheader Tuesday.
Not only is Memphis still missing Ja but it doesn't have PG Marcus Smart, PF Brandon Clarke, or SG Luke Kennard either. Oklahoma City on the other hand has a clean injury report.
Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander goes to the cup on Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr. at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. (Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, the Grizzlies have so many weaknesses for the Thunder to exploit. OKC is 4th in defensive TOV% and Memphis is 22nd in turnovers per game. The Thunder are 5th in offensive FT/FGA rate and the Grizzlies are 27th in defensive FT/FGA rate.
Ultimately, Oklahoma City crushes horrible teams and Memphis is 6-18 SU. The Thunder are 6-0 SU vs. teams with a bottom-10 net rating, per CTG. OKC has a +29.7 non-garbage time net rating in those games and a +16.4 spread differential in those games.