Four College Hoops Conference Tournament Finals Picks For Saturday
There is only one more sleep until Selection Sunday in college basketball and most of the conference tournament finals tip-off Saturday. I'm taking off the rubberband of my bankroll and hammering these games.
Below, I'm taking shots at the Utah State-San Diego State Mountain West final, Texas-Kansas Big XII championship, Duke-Virginia ACC final and Arizona-UCLA Pac-12 championship.
Mountain West Conference Tournament Final: Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs, 6 p.m. ET
Per VSIN, more than 90% of the money at DraftKings Sportsbook is on San Diego State as of 12:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Those betting splits are a red-flag because Utah State is a lot better than the market realizes.
The Aggies are 9th in effective field goal shooting (eFG%), 10th in assist-to-field-goal made rate and 18th in free throw percentage, per KenPom.com. They have nearly as much experience as the Aztecs and Utah State is the bigger team.
Utah State Aggies' Sean Bairstow reacts after making a 3-pointer vs. the Boise State Broncos during the Mountain West basketball tournament at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. (David Becker/Getty Images)
SDSU won the season series vs. Utah State 2-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). But, the Aggies have a much better shot profile, which in my opinion is more predictive.
According to BartTorvik.com, Utah State has the highest share of dunks in the conference, San Diego state attempts the 2nd-fewest "close" 2-pointers and allows the 2nd-most "close" 2s.
The Aztecs are 279th nationally in defensive 3-point-attempt (3PAr) allowed and the Aggies are 5th in 3-point percentage. My handicap in a nutshell is Utah State shoots it too well and too many people are betting SDSU
College Hoops Best Bet #1: Utah State +2 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to pick 'em
The Utah State Aggies' odds vs. the San Diego State Aztecs in the Mountain West Conference Tournament Championship from DraftKings Sportsbook
Big XII Tourney Final: Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas Jayhawks, 3 p.m. ET
This is another toss-up matchup with lopsided betting splits. Per VSIN, roughly 90% of the money is on Kansas at the time of writing. But, there isn't a ton of difference between these two sides. They split their season series 1-1 SU and ATS.
Both teams will be without their head coaches from the beginning of the season Saturday. Granted, for far different reasons but still. KenPom.com ranks the Jayhawks 8th in net efficiency and the Longhorns 9th.
Texas Longhorns SF Sir'Jabari Rice drives to the basket on Kansas Jayhawks SF Jalen Wilson at Moody Center in Austin. (Chris Covatta/Getty Images)
With that in mind, I have to fade the public and take the far more experienced Longhorns. Per KenPom.com, Texas has nearly double the average years of experience as Kansas.
Also, both teams are dealing with injuries to key players but the Longhorns are the deeper team. Texas's bench usage is nearly double Kansas's and Longhorns SF Sir'Jabari Rice was Big XII Sixth Man of the Year.
Finally, the Longhorns have a better eFG%, turnover rate, (TOV%) and free throw percentage. The Jayhawks are 276th in defensive free-throw-attempt rate and send opponents to the charity stripe too much.
College Hoops Best Bet #2: Texas +2 (-110) at DraftKings, down to pick 'em
The Texas Longhorns' odds vs. the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big XII Conference Tournament Championship from DraftKings Sportsbook.
ACC Conference Tournament Final: Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers, 8:30 p.m. ET
I'm going with Virginia because the public is hammering Duke and both UVA's coach Tony Bennett and players have edges in experience.
Duke coach Jon Scheyer is in his 1st season on the job. Bennett has 10 career NCAA Tournament appearances with Virginia and Washington State and won the 2019 national title with the Cavaliers.
Per KenPom.com, the Blue Devils rank 295th in experience nationally out of 363 programs and the Cavs are 4th. UVA's edge in experience helped it out-execute Duke in a 69-62 overtime win earlier this season.
Duke Blue Devils C Kyle Filipowski attempts to defend Virginia Cavaliers PG Kihei Clark at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Cavaliers had a better eFG% and half the turnovers (18-9) in their 1st meeting with the Blue Devils Feb. 11. The only reason Duke got that game into overtime was because UVA went 9-of-22 from the foul line.
Virginia had a better eFG% Duke last month despite shooting 28.6% from 3 because the Cavaliers shot 60.0% from inside the arc.
Per BartTorvik.com, UVA has a higher share of dunks than Duke and forces the highest rate of inefficient "far" 2-pointers in the ACC.
Between experience, coaching and shot profile, gimme the points with the Cavaliers.
College Hoops Best Bet #3: Virginia +3 (-110) at DraftKings, down +1.5
The Virginia Cavaliers' odds vs. the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Conference Tournament Championship from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pac-12 Tourney Final: Arizona Wildcats vs. UCLA Bruins, 10:30 p.m. ET
This is a Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market. According to VSIN, more money at DraftKings is on Arizona but more bets have been placed at UCLA at the time of writing.
Typically, the cash column of the betting splits is considered the sharper side of the market because professional bettors wager a lot more dough than you or I.
The Bruins are missing Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, SF Jaylen Clark. They could be without Pac-12 Rookie of the Year C Adem Bona who exited UCLA's conference semifinals win over Oregon and didn't return.
Arizona Wildcats big Oumar Ballo shoots a short-mid-range jumper vs. the UCLA Bruins at McKale Center in Tucson, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
These absences could loom large for the Bruins because the Wildcats are 3rd in eFG% and 4th in assist-to-field-goal made rate. Arizona has 6-foot-11 and 7-foot big in the starting 5 and uses its size well.
Per BartTorvik.com, the Wildcats have a higher rate of dunks and "close" 2-pointers than the Bruins. Arizona's defense allows fewer dunks and "close" 2s and forces opponents into more "far" 2s, which are considered "bad shots".
College Hoops Best Bet #4: Arizona (-110) at DraftKings
The Arizona Wildcats' odds at the UCLA Bruins in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament Championship from DraftKings Sportsbook.