Florida State Still Good Enough To Claim ACC

Louisville vs. Florida State, 8:00 ET

This is one of those games that you hope the underdog wins for a variety of reasons. First off, underdogs are more fun to root for. It is part of the reason that everyone hates on Tom Brady, LeBron James, the Yankees, Alabama, and other teams. They want to see a fun story. No one rooted for the Hawks or South Bend in the Mighty Ducks or Hoosiers. Today we might root for the underdog, but is that how we bet it? Let's check in the ACC Championship between the Louisville Cardinals and the Florida State Seminoles.

Louisville comes into this game with a 10-2 record and looking to wreak havoc on not only the ACC Championship, but the College Football Playoff. Look, I get it, if Florida State wins, you kind of have to keep them in the Playoff, but without their best player, who also plays quarterback, the most important role on the team, do we want them in the College Football Playoff? They will get destroyed by Georgia or whoever the #1 seed ends up being. Louisville does have the tools to beat the Seminoles, but they probably need to play a close to flawless game against them in order for it to work out in their favor. Florida State has a tough defensive front that will make it hard for Louisville to run the ball. Their running back, Jawhar Jordan, has been very good this season, but I am not sure he will find the holes needed in order to get yards consistently enough for the offense. Jack Plummer, the Louisville quarterback, is good, but not great. He can be tricked into a lot of dumb throws and has already given up 11 interceptions to just 22 touchdowns. If he throws a pick today, the game is probably over.

LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - OCTOBER 05: An ACC marker on the field in the game between Louisville Cardinals and Boston College Eagles at Cardinal Stadium on October 05, 2019 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Florida State doesn't have their quarterback. They haven't for a game plus now, but they are surviving. While they aren't thriving without Jordan Travis, they are at least playing well enough to win. Last week they beat a Florida team who was also playing without their quarterback 24-15. In that game, starter Tate Rodemaker was able to complete 12 of 25 passes for just 134 yards. Louisville's defense isn't great, but I can assure you they are going to do everything they can to stop the Florida State running game and hope their cornerbacks can win in 1-on-1 situations. Trey Benson was great last week and the Florida State offensive line will probably win in the trenches on most downs. Again, though, the Cardinals are likely to load up as much as possible and dare Rodemaker to be the hero. I haven't seen much of him, admittedly, but what I have seen, I don't think he can be the hero.

This probably does come down to who is the better defense. That's going to be Florida State. If the Seminoles offense can do anything to keep the Cardinals defense on the field and not completely wear down their own offense or give great field position to their opponent, they should win. It is a short spread, and I understand it, but the Seminoles defense, and the offensive line should be the keys to winning this one for Florida State. Back them -1.5.

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