Fish Could Fry Diamondbacks In Desert

Marlins vs. Diamondbacks, 4:10 ET

One of the most challenging things, in my opinion, about sports betting, is that you constantly have to reevaluate how you feel about teams. You start the season with an expectation. The season begins and you constantly have to determine if it is a slump or a hot streak or if that is truly what the team is. You need to evaluate current form vs what has happened in the past. There are a number of other factors, but the main thing is you're constantly evaluating what is going on with a team. The Marlins and Diamondbacks are no exception to this and take each other on today. 

The expectation I had of the Marlins this season was that they were going to be very bad. The reality is, they aren't quite as bad as I had thought they would be. They are still multiple games under .500 and probably will end that way for the season, but they are more competitive than I had thought they would be. The other expectation I had about the club is that it was going to sell off every player they could at the deadline. That still remains to be seen. Currently, the team is on a hot streak. Even the Rockies swept someone though, so maybe it means nothing. Today they get Sandy Alcantara, their de facto Ace to take the ball. Alcantara is 4-8 for the year with a 6.69 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He is still trying to rediscover his form from his Cy Young season three years ago. While he has been bad this year, this month has been encouraging. He has a 2.74 ERA this month and three quality starts. The one exception was when he lasted just five innings instead of six. He's kind of owned the Diamondback hitters over the yeras, holding them to just 8 hits in 50 at-bats with 17 strikeouts. 

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Brandon Pfaadt (32) pitches against the Seattle Mariners at Chase Field in Phoenix, on June 10, 2025.

The expectations of Arizona this season were that they would compete for a playoff spot. I wasn't one to put them with potential to win the division, but something encouraging like a Wild Card spot felt right for them. They play in an incredibly difficult division and there are four teams that could potentially win a playoff spot this year. As of right now, they look like the least likely as they have been above and below .500 for much of the season, never really falling too far or getting too much over. Today they send out youngster, Brandon Pfaadt to the hill. Pfaadt is 8-5 for the season with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He has performed better at home, but still has a 4.08 ERA there. This month has been a mixed bag for Pfaadt with two outings of four or more earned runs, and two with two earned runs. Marlins hitters are batting surprisingly well against him with 11 hits in 31 at-bats. 

This isn't a bet for those with weak stomachs, and maybe I should be a bit more conservative with my bets this season considering I haven't been the most consistent handicapper that I would like to be. I'm going to take the Marlins through five innings. I think we still are getting a bit of a discount (though the books are starting to adjust for Alcantara's improvements). I'm taking Miami through five against the Diamondbacks. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024