First Five Run Line Play In Reds Vs Guardians

Guardians vs. Reds, 6:40 ET

Another 1-1 day which is essentially the trend for this year. Sure, I've had a few 0-2, but more 2-0 days than goose egg days. In addition, I've been playing a lot of plus money plays which means we aren't actually just getting juiced out of our bankroll. I've got another plus money play for the Guardians vs. Reds game that takes place tonight.

Cleveland is now under .500 and not looking great overall. Most of the season the Guardians were ebbing and flowing around that .500 mark. Around the trade deadline, they kind of threw in the towel on the season. They are still just 4.5 games back in the division so I suppose they could go on a run and make it interesting with the Twins. One of the returns from a trade they made is taking the ball tonight in Noah Syndergaard. I've long harped on the success, or lack thereof, of Syndergaard, based on where he pitches. He was a bit better last season when he pitched with Phillies after a trade to Philadelphia and not having as drastic splits. This will be his fourth start for the Guardians and he has turned in two strong performances and one poor one. The two good starts he went 5.1 and 5.2 innings and allowed just one run in each of those games. The poor start was against the White Sox when he allowed five earned over six innings. Reds hitters haven't seen much of him, but aside from Joey Votto, the team has don't pretty well against him. Take out Votto and the team is 7-for-17 against Syndergaard.

CLEVELAND, OH - JUNE 21: Bo Naylor (L) #23 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates with teammate Josh Naylor #22 after scoring during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Progressive Field on June 21, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images)

The Reds are shocking to me that they are still in this division race. They are just 3.5 games back in the division and a team that I expected to be one of the worst in the National League may actually make the playoffs. Last season, the Orioles were a team that the books listed as the expectation being something like 100 losses. This year was similar for the Reds (maybe not quite that bad), but they are playing good baseball. Their pitching staff still leaves a lot to be desired, but tonight's starter has been very good for them. Andrew Abbott has been great for the Reds since his call up in the beginning of June. Has he had some stinkers? Of course he has, but he also has posted eight quality starts out of his 13 total starts. He has good stuff and has made good progress this season as he is essentially leading the starting staff. His splits aren't drastic, but he does perform better at home than on the road so far this season. It isn't the earned runs that I think is better, but he holds hitters to a .163 average at home as opposed to on the road.

Abbott may not have ever faced the Guardians, but I think that's actually encouraging for him. That means he should be able to make it through the first few innings with the upper hand. Syndergaard could potentially turn in another nice performance, but if anyone is going to throw five innings with no runs allowed, it is Abbott. I think the Reds end up winning the first five innings and I'll take the run line through five at a very short plus money.

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