First Five Play in Royals vs. Tigers

Royals vs. Tigers, 6:40 ET

I bet you all are super excited to read about a matchup between to bottom-dwellers in the American League! There aren't always easy games to bet on, but this one seems to have a clear edge for one team and it might be one of the few times I've ever thought that the Tigers would win a game. Let's take a look and see if we should play that though.

There have been a few plays on the Royals this year where we took Zack Greinke. I will absolutely not touch Grienke on the road. This year has been embarrassingly bad for him in road starts. In 12 road starts, he has a 6.36 ERA. That looks even worse when you compare it to his stellar 2.32 home ERA. He has faced Detriot once on the year but that was a home start early in the season. In that game, he allowed two earned runs over 5.1 innings. Even as bad as Greinke was pitching on the road this season his last three road starts haven't been all bad. He has only gone four innings in his last two road starts and has given up three runs and two runs in those outings.

Joey Wentz is pitching for the Tigers. He was on the squad in May and struggled in two starts. Now that he is back on the team, he is pitching pretty well. In September, he's thrown 16.1 innings and allowed two earned runs over three innings. If you looked at his home ERA you'd be a bit misled. In his first start this season, he gave up six earned runs. In the other two, he allowed two earned runs over eight innings. So that ERA north of six isn't looking great, but again, it is pretty misleading. He did start against Kansas City a few starts ago and it was a great outing. In it he went 6.2 innings and allowed just two hits and no runs.

I didn't go back and check how many times I've actually bet the Tigers to win the game. It can't be more than five. Tonight, though, I'm taking the Tigers. Since the full game and first five are the same cost, I am going to play it through five innings at -115. I'm betting the Tigers can get to Greinke and that Wentz can hold off the Royals for one more start. If I had to play a total on this one it would absolutely be the over. I think 7.5 is a bit low, but neither of these teams have stellar offenses.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024